Senators Lose Leverage and Increase Demands

There’s a lot I don’t get about the Dany Heatley ransom demands.

Like why are the Oilers so hot for a player who so obviously doesn’t want to play for them? Are they only interested because they know he’ll demand a trade in another two seasons? Do they think they can change him?

And as the demand for Heatley has pretty much entirely evaporated (which is really saying something in the NHL, where there was even a market for Sean Avery after his “sloppy seconds” penance was over), Ottawa is increasing what they want back for Heatley. You just have to bow down to Ottawa GM Bryan Murray’s business sense/powers of denial. He wants more for a player no one else really wants and who everyone knows doesn’t want to play in Ottawa. Most GMs would just love to have an ungrateful Heatley’s salary off of their cap. Murray is looking to make the deal of the century. I’d love to give him a really basic ECON101 textbook, just to see his mind blown as he sees the actual rules of supply and demand.

And I’d love to see Edmonton take a stand and stop chasing players who don’t want to play for them. If you want a contract offer from the Oilers, the quickest path is to say you prefer not to play in Edmonton. And somehow, players like Jay Bouwmeester and Ryan Smyth, who actively wanted to play there, wind up someplace else.

Also, people are making a big deal about Marian Hossa’s mammoth Chicago contract and it’s really overshadowing one of their very smart, smaller moves: their signing of John Madden. Madden still has tremendous speed, even at 36, so he won’t slow the ‘Hawks down. His defensive prowess is legendary. His work ethic is unmatched. He’s the perfect players for the Blackhawks. I think he’s going to have some real influence on the team’s development.

What Glen Sather Learned from Donnie Walsh

When you run a sports team in a media-centric city like New York, there aren’t a lot of places to hide if your team isn’t successful. Sure some, most notably the Yankees’ Joe Torre when he coached here, could parlay past success into a fairly consistent waiver from criticism, but other than that, if you’re running or managing a New York team, just about every move is a reason for the entire city to call for your head.

There’s never been an exception to this until recently. When Donnie Walsh took over the Knicks last season, he announced he was getting the team under the salary cap so the Knicks could make a run at LeBron James in 2010. ‘But isn’t it highly unlikely that James will leave Cleveland?’ the city asked. ‘Sure,’ Walsh said. ‘But if he’s not available, we’ll find someone else. We’ll be under the cap. We’ll be able to sign whoever we want.’

And that’s all Walsh has done. Dump salary and not take on more salary. And everyone loves it. The Knicks are still a horrible team, but there’s this idea that the cap space creates the potential for success. Obviously, it’s unrealized success, but the fans and media have been happy to wait two seasons for the Knicks to start moving forward.

Now the Knicks and Rangers are owned by the same family. And I’m sure Rangers GM Glen Sather has noticed that just about any Walsh move is forgiven if it creates or does not add cap space. So when he had the opportunity to trade away Scott Gomez and his awful contract for a solid player, a solid prospect, and a throw-in, he went for it. And everyone loved the move. Even the fans. Sather wasn’t making the team better, but he was creating the idea the team could become better. And apparently just the potential holds fans and media members for quite a while.

People are saying the Rangers now have the cap space to make some major moves. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Sather take this very slow, though, as he seems to have learned from watching Walsh that moves will always be criticized unless you can hide behind the idea of creating cap space. If Sather doesn’t make many moves and keeps some cap space, the idea of the next big move being right around the corner will comfort people. No one will call for his job since they don’t know what he might have up his sleeve.

Now this probably seems crazy to people in smaller markets, where cap space often represents unfulfilled potential; players that will never play for your team. But here in New York, a restrained payroll is a very new idea and the fans and media have really taken to it. They see cap space not as a limitation but as a blank canvas.

If Sather is smart, he has put away his paint for the time being.

Sabres Ghosts

I’m shocked the Blues are going to waive defenseman Jay McKee. Mostly, because he was so injured during his time in St. Louis, he usually wasn’t much of a factor for the team. I thought they’d want to get some return on their investment during the last year of his contract. The Blues are capped out, though, and they need McKee’s salary for a backup goalie.

McKee came to the Blues as an unrestricted free agent out of Buffalo. His last season in Buffalo was what many thought represented the Sabres return to NHL glory. They made it to the Eastern Conference finals, falling to Carolina in seven games. The Sabres seemed just a few player tweaks away fro the Stanley Cup.

Of course, rather than keep together their successful core, the Sabres allowed themselves to be dismantled. McKee was one of the first to go from that core. It’s interesting to look at how many from the 2005-06 Sabres lineup haven’t aged very well.

Chris Drury and Danny Briere are each the subject of trade rumors with their respective teams. Neither is a dominant force on their team and neither is playing up to their contract.

Maxim Afinogenov, whom the Sabres decided to retain, has struggled to find a consistent game. Dmitri Kalinin’s game (he eventually left for the Rangers) has completely disintegrated. To the extent that you have to wonder if he’ll be back in the NHL next season.

Of course, not everyone from that 2005-06 Buffalo class has failed. Thomas Vanek was one of the rare players to get an extension out of the Sabres, and he’s played well for them. Defenseman Brian Campbell is doing well for the Blackhawks. And JP Dumont is solid enough for the Predators.

So while there’s no 2005-06 Sabres Curse, it is interesting to see how some of the more high-profile players have struggled apart from each other.

Also, my draft recap is up at RotoRob.

RealEstateBuzz

I’m thinking I need to get into real estate, since that seems to be the best way to track player movement.

Some people say Jay Bouwmeester’s building a house in Edmonton is a clue he wants to play out west.

Marian Gaborik’s buying a house in Vancouver seems to be a clue he’ll sign there as a free agent.

And now, upcoming free agent Sergei Zubov has placed his Dallas home on the market, a sign he might not be returning to the Stars (It has a dipping pool, which sounds dirty to me). But since Zubov has a Florida home, would the Panthers want Zubov as a much, much, much older Bouwmeester replacement? The man can still run a powerplay and work a point. We saw that in the playoffs.

I’m off to show a lovely junior four in a great school district. The maintenance is shockingly low, too. Hit me on Twitter if you want in on this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Getting Drafty

I’m never able to get very excited about the NHL draft. Very few draftees have an immediate impact, so it’s hard to get psyched about players you probably won’t see for a while.

Greg Logan had an interesting piece about if teams should take the player they value most highly or the one the market values. For instance, Logan wonders if the Islanders should take Matt Duchene first overall, even though the market has him valued as a third overall.

I’m not a huge fan of the “take the player you value” approach as you’re leaving money on the table. If GM Garth Snow doesn’t want John Tavares or Victor Hedman, he should trade down and get some talent, or talent potential, back. If the Islanders don’t take Taveres at first overall, I suspect the Islander fans are going to freak. A trade-down might soften the blow. Unless Snow plans on drafting Ricky Rubio. I think that might hurt a lot of people.

The Flyers, with the 21st overall pick, might be looking to trade down if they’re not able to trade up, which is a vote for picking the best player, not the most valued. By the 21st player, you’re definitely seeing some dropoff in quality and there probably isn’t a ton of difference between 21 and say, 27, Why not drop down and get the same level of player, plus something for letting another team move up?

Although not necessarily. Bleacher Report had an interesting look at the 10 best draft steals since 1990. And if you learn one thing, it’s that you can, occasionally, find gems in the later rounds.

Also, former Habs GM Sam Pollock’s business card is for sale on eBay for US$2000. Pollock is dead, so the contact information on the card really isn’t going to help you very much. Just an FYI. Thanks to Alain for the link.

Track Records

Adrian Dater has an interesting question: do we really know what the big deal is about Swedish goalie Jonas Gustavsson?

I think the big deal is that he’s an unproven free agent, so you have the excitement of a rookie coupled with the track record of a veteran. A young veteran.

I’m pretty curious how he’ll pan out in the NHL, though. Especially since he seems interested in some pretty atrocious teams.

Meanwhile, down in DC, Tarik El-Bashir talks about Bob Woods, the Caps new assistant coach. Woods doesn’t have an NHL track record, which seems to be working for the Capitals in terms of coaching. Still, I’m a bit surprised they didn’t go for a more NHL-seasoned assistant to round out whatever holes are in coach Bruce Boudreau’s still developing NHL coaching repertoire.

Also, the Caps won’t be a part of next season’s Winter Classic, making them perhaps the only NHL team that won’t be playing outdoors on New Year’s Day.

Also, I love how everyone keeps asking Lou Lamoriello what he thinks about Brent Sutter’s impending gig coaching the Flames. I think Lamoriello isn’t saying much because it’s been so long since a coach left him under his own steam. Usually, Lamoriello’s firing them right before the playoffs. He seems positively flummoxed by the situation. He’s got to fire someone soon, in order to get his equilibrium back.

Heatley a Tough Sell/Trade

Kevin Allen has an interesting piece on something I’ve been noticing: There doesn’t seem to be any market for or interest in Ottawa’s Dany Heatley.

Obviously, a lot of the disinterest is posturing by GMs, but Heatley’s contract just doesn’t make sense, financially, in a lot of places. And when you consider players like Jay Bouwmeester and Marian Hossa and the Sedin twins are available as free agents, Heatley just doesn’t seem as attractive. And then, if you factor in the fact that he’s publicly demanding a trade, he becomes an expensive player that’s going to need to be handled, personality-wise.

Toronto’s Brian Burke agrees, publicly ripping Heatley for publicly demanding a trade.

Meanwhile, free agent goalie Jonas Gustavsson, who was never drafted by an NHL team and can sign anywhere he wants, is making the rounds, trying to decide where to go. He reportedly has his teams narrowed down to Colorado, Dallas, San Jose and Toronto, which makes me wonder if he understands how the NHL’s standings system works.

Does San Jose have the inside track? Possibly. Gustavsson’s agent co-founded a sports management business with Joe Thornton’s brother. San Jose goalie Evgeni Nabokov must be super psyched about that connection.

Madden 2009

Earlier this week, New Jersey Devil Brian Rolston went on the record as saying he hadn’t been a big fan of former coach Brent Sutter.

I imagine John Madden also wasn’t a big fan of the coach who often didn’t believe in matching and checking lines. After all, Madden is all about checking and matching.

But now, Sutter is gone, and Madden is an unrestricted free agent. Madden is a great checking center, and he has some offensive ability, which ironically, did not thrive under Sutter, an offense-minded coach. But less and less teams use a dedicated checking line, so you have to wonder what the market is for a player like Madden. And you have to wonder if the Devils are going to pass on Madden as a symbol that the team is no longer defense-first.

And I guess that’s what it comes down to. It’ll be tough for the Devils to make a decision on Madden until they know who their next coach will be, or at least until they know what kind of coach they want.

But I’d love to see Madden remain in New Jersey. It’s hard to think about the Devils and not think about Madden. He’s been a huge part of their identity for a long time.

If Only…

One way you know it was a great game seven is that there just wasn’t much to say about it. It completely spoke for itself. The Penguins were flawless for two periods and strong enough for the third.

Defenseman Brad Stuart, whose turnovers and pinching led to both game seven Penguin goals, says he’d like a few of those moments back.

Meanwhile, the Coyotes are staying in Phoenix…for now. I can’t imagine they’ll be sold to anyone and stay there, but I guess the league will have more of a say in who the next owner is.

Derian Hatcher retired and took a job with the Flyers as a player development coach. Hatcher had lost quite a few steps over the years but in his prime, he was a scary presence along the blue line. I kind of wonder if he’ll try and get the Flyers to draft linebackers who they’ll then teach to skate. I always suspected that’s how Hatcher got into hockey.

Michael Russo has a great post explaining why the Wild went with San Jose’s Todd Richards as their new coach. The Wild wanted someone more offensive-minded than Jacques Lemaire, which isn’t very hard to accomplish, given Lemaire never fully embraced the forward pass. But the Wild also wanted a younger coach the players could relate to and who would take some time to explain coaching choices to the young Wild team.

Interestingly, Russo also suspects Richards would have gotten the coaching job in Pittsburgh, after Michel Therrien was fired, if he had stuck around the Penguins organization. Do you think Brad Stuart is thinking about that variable, too?

Tonight’s the Night

So tonight’s the night for Detroit or Pittsburgh.

Tim Panaccio says the Penguins need a role player to step-up and pull a Ruslan Fedotenko circa game seven of the 2004 Stanley Cup finals. I think Fedotenko, who now plays for Pittsburgh, is a logical candidate for that role, but maybe it’s too obvious.

Meanwhile, moving to the opposite of the Stanley Cup finals, the Islanders are looking for size in the draft. I mention this only because in the past, I feel the Islanders ignored their glaringly obvious flaws, but lately, it seems like the franchise is more in touch with its weaknesses.

If the Islanders want grit, they might want to look at Colorado’s beloved Ian Laperriere, who won’t be back with the Avs next season. Although, Laperriere isn’t that tall.