PuckUpdate :: The Hockey Blog » Blackhawks

Red Wings Turn to Experience as Blackhawks Turn Away

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 05 Aug 2010 14:08:51 +0000

The other day, I wrote about how Cup-winning experience is actually a good thing.

The Blackhawks’ summer payroll purge has resulted in a Cup-winning team jettisoning a decent part of its Cup-winning experience.

And that could wind up being a fatal mistake for Chicago. Obviously, a lot of the experience purge is due to salary cap considerations, and so are — to a certain extent — out of GM Stan Bowman’s hands. But there are still ways to retain talent and experience working within the constraints of the cap.

Experience has come up a few times this week.

The Red Wings signed Cup-winning, 40-year-old Mike Modano to a one-year deal that will see him centering the Wings’ third line.

The Wings are a team that have always treasured success and experience. While I don’t think the move will ultimately pan out for the Wings, I can see where they would want a guy like Modano in the room.

Modano would represent another way to reinforce the principles of hockey success, assuming he plays well enough to be taken seriously.

And of course, Peter Forsberg’s annual retirement reconsideration always draws interest from NHL teams.

Part of that interest is driven by the memories of Forsberg’s immense talents. Some of is driven by the desire to get a deal, the same way people buy garbage at garage sales, hoping it turns out to be a priceless antique. But Forsberg also draws interest because of the experience he brings to a team. While his physical abilities have consistently waned, he still sees the game like very few players. And to a lot of NHL GMs, that makes Forsberg worth the risk.

The Blackhawks are shedding experience and flying in the face of what some other NHL GMs are doing. They’re taking a big risk. Other than the Devils of the 1990s and the NFL’s New England Patriots, there aren’t too many successful teams that dismantle themselves, feeling they have too much success and experience on the roster.

I’m not sure the Blackhawks will be one of those rare exceptions.

Cup-Winning Experience Is Actually a Good Thing

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 03 Aug 2010 11:39:25 +0000

Winning the Stanley Cup is like being in a fraternity. It’s a little bit of a job hook-up device. Players who had any kind of significant role in winning the Cup are usually more likely to get jobs or traded for.

The idea is that if a team is making a Cup run, GMs want some Cup-winning experience in the room. They want non-Cup-winning players to hear what it takes to win the Cup and how great it feels once the Cup is won.

By walking away from goalie Antti Niemi, and his $2.75 million arbitration ruling, the Blackhawks are walking away from Cup-winning experience.

Again.

On the one hand, Blackhawks’ GM Stan Bowman felt he needed more cap space than Niemi’s contract would have provided. Also, Niemi has hardly been a lights-out goalie, even as he helped Chicago win the Cup.

But on the other hand, by signing goalie Marty Turco to replace Niemi (for $1.75 to $1.25 million less), he’s going with a goalie who’s consistently wilted under the pressure of big games.

Turco will probably be fine during the regular season. But the Blackhawks aren’t looking to win the regular season. They want more Cups.

And I’m not sure Turco is a guy who can bring in more Cups.

Dallas parted ways with Turco without looking back after a decade with the goalie. That’s a pretty huge indicator that the team saw some limitations in his abilities.

The Turco move only makes sense if Bowman expects goalie Cristobal Huet to finally start living up to his contract. While he wasn’t a key part of the Blackhawks’ Stanley Cup-winning run, he was around for it. Maybe Bowman thinks bearing witness to success is just about as good as being successful.

Obviously, Bowman would love to move that contract, but I can’t see anyone being remotely interested. Unless the Islanders actually become that desperate to reach the cap floor.

Or maybe the Blackhawks are finally ready to put the highly-regarded goalie Corey Crawford into the NHL mix and expect it to be a seamless transition.

Bowman made a tough move in walking away from Niemi. For Bowman, I think he felt Niemi’s talent didn’t justify that much money.

My concern is that Niemi’s intangibles — his calm and composure and experience — were actually worth a lot more and will be tough to replace. In fact, I think a great comparable might be Chris Osgood, who won three Stanley Cups with a level of talent and ability similar to Niemi’s.

Neither goalie has game-changing talent, but both seem able to stay calm in the face of increasingly higher stakes.

It’s hard to say to what extent Niemi has this kind of calm given just one post-season of data to work with.

But while at least the possibility exists that Niemi is a big game goalie, it seems fair to say we know Turco isn’t that kind of goalie.

So the Blackhawks have saved some cap space. Hopefully they haven’t compromised too much of their future.

Bruins Should Have Signed Blake Wheeler Weeks Ago

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 27 Jul 2010 10:22:25 +0000

Blake Wheeler’s arbitration hearing with the Bruins is set for this morning.

Wheeler, heading into just his third NHL season, has been remarkably mature and solid.

He seems to have found a groove as a 20ish goals per season player, who helps out on special teams and can handle plenty of minutes.

For whatever reason, the Bruins and Wheeler haven’t been able to get a deal done, hence the arbitration hearing for a one-year deal.

I’m not sure what Wheeler is asking for, but given his comparables, I can’t imagine the arbitrator will give him more than $2.6 million at the absolute most.

Boston has the right to walk away from the ruling, making Wheeler a free agent. Or, perhaps more likely, if they don’t like the salary ruling, they can sign Wheeler and then try and trade him away.

But I’m very surprised the Wheeler negotations have made it to the arbitration stage. I can’t imagine the Bruins watched the Blackhawks fire sale this summer, moments after they won the Cup, and thought ‘Having important players locked down isn’t that important.’

Wheeler isn’t a sexy player. He’s not an offensive juggernaut. He’s not the first-line wing the Bruins hoped he would be. But he’s still a strong, consistent, mature player. And given the right coaching, mentoring, and/or development, his game can improve. I think it’s not that crazy to picture Wheeler as a 30-goal-per-season player.

For whatever reason, the Bruins do find that hard to imagine. Or if they can imagine it, they think it’s not worth paying for.

Or perhaps Wheeler is asking for outrageous money.

Whatever the cause of the impasse, the Bruins have a talented young player who most people expect to improve. Why not lock him down now? Why not keep an important team building block in place?

The Blackhawks had a tough summer because they didn’t have enough players locked into place. Life under a salary cap means planning a few seasons in advance. Because a lot of times, if a player isn’t locked-in, another team with more cap space is going to be able to poach him.

Wheeler’s one-year deal will solve the Bruins’ problems for a year, but next summer, they’ll be in exactly the same place, albeit with an additional year of data to work with.

But depending upon how cantankerous the arbitration hearing gets, they could also wind up with a severely alienated player.

Wheeler is solid and has some upside. They Bruins are much better off with the bird they have in their hand. Because unless they want to extend a 30-year deal to a free agent that somehow makes it to the open market, odds are they’re not going to do much better.

How Ilya Kovalchuk Should Have Handled Free Agency

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 10:58:57 +0000

As a public service to both Ilya Kovalchuk and hockey fans, I’m going to list some things Kovalchuk could have done to prevent his extended stay in NHL Free Agent Purgatory.

Free Samples
At the end of the 2007-08 season, Marian Hossa left Pittsburgh to sign a one-year deal with Detroit. Hossa could have gotten a longer deal somewhere else, but by taking the one-year internship in Detroit, Hossa did a few things:

He showed his commitment to winning, by taking less money for the chance to win a Cup.
He showed GMs what he brings to a team by helping Detroit once again reach the Stanley Cup finals (although, to be candid, Detroit did lose the Cup that year).
He improved his game, learning things from many of the Detroit players. Hossa didn’t have a down-low game before he spent a year with the Wings. He’s a much more complete player because of that one season.

That season in Detroit improved Hossa’s value on the free agent market. NHL GMs would be much more comfortable with Kovalchuk if he gave GMs a “free” season somewhere to show everyone just what he brings to the table.

A great season somewhere would remove any doubts GMs have about throwing a lot of money at Kovalchuk. Sure, he’d lose a year of salary, but a strong season would result in a contract that would more than make up for what he left gave up for that one season.

Decide Which is More Important: Winning or Money
If the numbers being thrown around are true, Kovalchuk has already turned down several opportunities to be a very well-compensated player. That tells us Kovalchuk is interested in money.

But before Kovalchuk was traded to New Jersey last season, he turned down a 12-year, $101 million deal from the Thrashers, which is more than anyone else has offered so far. At the time, the thought was that Kovalchuk turned down the Atlanta deal because he wanted to win.

If he wants money, he should have taken the Atlanta deal. If he wants to win, he should decide if he things New Jersey or LA is the better team and then sign with one of them. But he can’t keep floating between the idea of getting a cap-busting contract and the idea of winning, because the two thoughts are pretty much mutually exclusive in the real world.

Read the Market
Kovalchuk came into free agency following a Stanley Cup finals featuring two teams with depth and versatility. Neither team had a top guy per se. Instead, both teams featured a few talented players. So much so, that Jonathan Toews winning the Conn Smythe seemed more like a coin-flip-driven decision than an intellectual one.

In last season’s Cup finals, everyone was an MVP and no one was an MVP.

I’m sure at least a few GMs saw the Finals and thought that they wanted a team like Chicago or Philadelphia. Putting all of a team’s eggs into the Kovalchuk basket would be the antithesis of the Chicago/Philadelphia strategy. Sure, the Blackhawks gave a massive contract to Hossa last year, but it wasn’t until they had a lot of fantastic pieces already in place. And while Hossa was fantastic in the playoffs, ultimately Chicago is paying a sick amount of money to a second-line guy. So it’s fair to say, Hossa serves as a little bit of a warning against the massive free agent contract.

NHL GMs saw were reminded that depth is more important than anything. I’m not sure there are any teams that are deep enough for Kovalchuk to represent the final piece of the puzzle, but who also have the cap space to give Kovalchuk the contract he wants.

To get the huge contract, he might have signed someplace else short-term and waited for a more star-driven Cup finals to convince GMs they need the best player available, not a variety of very good players.

I assume the Kovalchuk Purgatory will eventually end, allowing the NHL to get on with the rest of free agency. It’s too late to help Kovalchuk, but hopefully future free agents will see these tips and take them to heart.

Because it’s emotionally draining spending each day waiting for Kovalchuk to sign somewhere.

I’m not sure I can do another summer like this.

Comparing Hossas to Hartnells

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 10:05:22 +0000

The playoffs are over so of course, eyes turn to next season.

The Flyers, who lost in six games, are left with quite a few roster questions, from what to do about goaltending to how to where to find defensive depth.

But the most intriguing question Tim Panaccio asks is what to do about Scott Hartnell, so disappointing during the regular season but so brilliant in the playoffs.

I’m interested in Hartnell because of how he compared to Chicago’s Marian Hossa. Both were second line guys who saw important minutes. Hartnell finished the playoffs with eight goals (three on the powerplay), nine assists, +4, with 25 penalty minutes.

Hossa finished the playoffs with three goals (all even strength), 12 assists, +7, and 25 penalty minutes.

A lot of what Hossa did for Chicago, in terms of his shockingly solid forecheck and backcheck, didn’t show up on the stats sheet, but the same could be said for Hartnell.

So in the playoffs, I think you have to consider Hartnell outplayed Hossa. Of course, you also have to consider Hartnell has a $4.2 million cap until 2013 while Hossa’s is $5.2 million over the next 11 years.

Obviously, Philadelphia will want to watch Hartnell’s performance next season, but he seems like a pretty solid deal.

In terms of Hossa, he had a great post-season, but did he really live up to his cap hit? It’s hard to quantify. Since the Blackhawks won the Cup, it’s not something people are going to ask right away. But as Chicago needs to retain players and sign new ones? The question will certainly come up again.

Of course, it’s mostly an academic question, since I can’t see anyone being interested in trading for a contract that long. Not with Mike Milbury out of the GM game.

But Mike Heika is already asking who can be poached from Chicago.

Heika guesses goalie Cristobal Huet and defenseman Brian Campbell are both in play, assuming anyone would want that kind of salary. He also thinks Patrick Sharp and Kris Versteeg might also be available.

And that’s another advantage to winning the Cup (other than, you know, having won the Cup). All of these players (minus Huet) now have an aura of success that make them much more attractive to teams. Sharp and Versteeg were always solid players but having seen them in the post-season, I imagine a lot of NHL teams will be interested in trying to trade for them.

It’s sad that the cap makes it so hard to keep a team together. The Blackhawks lifted the Cup Wednesday night and within 48 hours all we can think about it is who Chicago will try and trade away.

At least they got to enjoy a couple of days, though.

Blackhawks Lift Stanley Cup Outside the Box

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 10:08:52 +0000

I don’t remember a finals quite like this one.

When is the last time you saw such average-to-poor goaltending?

Flyers goalie Michael Leighton should have had at least two of the four goals he gave up, including the game-winner. Chicago goalie Antti Niemi continued to surrender some of the worst rebounds I’ve ever seen. His defense did a huge job keeping those rebounds away from the Flyers.

I don’t think anyone thinks Leighton or Niemi are going to be factors for either team next season.

And when is the last time you saw so much up-and-down play? Neither team would slow things down, especially in game six. The whole series was pretty much stretch passes through the neutral zone.

Also, I don’t recall a series where coaches stuck to their lines so religiously.

Much was made of Joel Quenneville’s decision to break-up the Jonathan Toews-Patrick Kane-Dustin Byfuglien line when they were struggling against Chris Pronger, but it’s fairly standard coaching to break lines up to get away from bad match-ups. In fact, there are lots of tricks, like double-shifting players, hiding stars on lower lines, or even changing lines. But Quenneville seemed reluctant to do these kinds of things on the fly with his key players.

Flyers coach Peter Laviolette was also loyal to his lines. Sure, he moved Ville Leino to the top line toward the end of game six, but I was surprised he didn’t mix-and-match more, just to get away from the Duncan Keith-Brent Seabrook defensive pair that shadowed the Flyers super successful so-called second line (Danny Briere-Scott Hartnell-Leino).

I understand that Laviolette probably kept his lines because the second line was working and game six was never really out of his reach, but I wonder if new lines would have thrown Quenneville off of his game. Especially since Laviolette had the last change last night.

The fact that the finals were so different is what made them so great. Both coaches chose offense over defense, trying to win the series on the backs of their best players, not their most defensively stifling. That’s what made the series so exciting to watch.

I’ve never watched someone lift the Stanley Cup and thought ‘Wow. I wish the series could go another seven games.’ This year, that’s what I was thinking.

Quenneville and Laviolette coached outside of conventional NHL coaching wisdom and it made for some very entertaining hockey.

I hope other coaches and GMs took notes and are prepared to challenge some more NHL coaching assumptions when the regular season resumes. As we saw in the playoffs, great things happen when coaches get creative.

And hockey can be very exciting with below-average goaltending on both ends of the ice.

John Madden No Longer Needs an Elite Goalie

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 10:09:48 +0000

John Madden of the Blackhawks is finding time to stir things up.

Right in the middle of the Stanley Cup finals, he managed to take a shot at the Devils, his old team, calling the 2009-10 Blackhawks the best team he’s ever played for:

This team is way deeper. Just take a look at the lineup…This is a different type of team, too. Those [Devils] teams were pre-lockout teams. This is post-lockout. There is a lot more skill, a lot more speed. It’s totally different than any team I’ve ever played on, that’s for sure.

I get what Madden is saying in terms of depth and speed and skill (although back in the day, Madden was actually quite fast) in Chicago, but how can he not miss goalie Martin Brodeur? The Blackhawks have one vulnerability, but it’s a huge one: goaltending.

Antti Niemi has looked completely incapable of blocking a shot into the corners. He seems to prefer sending everything to one of the faceoff circles.

It’s interesting, though, that when you’re dealing with two average goaltenders and two teams running relatively offensive systems, goaltending isn’t as vital as it was in the NHL’s more defensive moments. Which is why Madden isn’t preoccupied with the quality of his team’s goaltending. It’s just not as big an issue as it was when Madden played for New Jersey.

Having said that, I think both the Flyers and Blackhawks would have a lot of trouble against a disciplined, defensive team with a strong goaltender.

And given how much fun this finals has been to watch, I hope the NHL is thinking about ways to prevent goalies from dominating games. Like maybe actually shrinking goalie equipment down to mid 90s size, instead of shaving a few meaningless inches off. Something like that would give just about every game more scoring and more exciting saves.

Smaller goalie equipment would make a lot more goalies play average. And, like Madden says, skill and speed would be a lot more valuable.

Blackhawks Doing a Lot of Little Things Well in Finals

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 10:04:11 +0000

To be honest, I hadn’t noticed this myself, but apparently the Blackhawks are blocking a lot of shots.

It’s not that surprising, though. The Blackhawks are doing a great job keeping Philadelphia to the outside. A lot of times it seems fairly obvious where the Flyers’ shot has to come from, making it easy to block.

Peter Laviolette has tried to adjust by having shots come in from the point, but the Blackhawks seem fairly content to let the Flyers settle for something shot in from the blue line.

In general, I’ve been knocked out by all of the little things the Blackhawks do so well.

They’re always in shooting lanes. Since game one, they’ve kept the Flyers out of the slot. And even moving through the neutral zone, they’ll lift the puck over the Flyers, almost like a punt. Using the air attack keeps the puck off of Flyers sticks. But it also seems to make it difficult for Philadelphia to know where the puck is. It’s pretty clever.

The Blackhawks have even used their punt to launch some breakaways.

Having said that, the first two games of the finals have been very close. I haven’t been knocked out by Antti Niemi’s positioning, or lack thereof, and if the Flyers can get to loose pucks a hair quicker, it looks like they can really put up some goals. In fact, I’d use Pronger down low, more like a forward, to capitalize on his size and reach. Niemi gets down very quickly; with Pronger in his face, I think someone could get something past him.

I’m not sure how trainable Dan Carcillo is at this point in the season, but he could probably fill a similar role, although that would entail not running around the ice like a maniac, which might not sit well with him.

Speaking of the finals, here’s a very comprehensive look at the life and work of Doc Emrick.

Emrick’s been great calling the finals. Eddie Olczyk, his color guy, often doesn’t seem to have his mic properly adjusted, though. He’s pretty much impossible to hear during play.

Chicago Rolls and No One Asks Too Many Questions

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 20 May 2010 09:54:49 +0000

Context is everything.

The Sun-Times has a small item talking about how well Marian Hossa is playing in the playoffs, despite scoring just two goals.

And Hossa’s game really has evolved. He’s gotten much, much more physical, which he attributes to his year with the Red Wings.

But would everyone be content with Hossa’s performance if the Blackhawks were down two games, rather than up two games? Is great forechecking and solid defense worth $62.8 over 12 years?

Also, it’s worth noting that as physical as Hossa’s been, he’s also picked up 19 penalty minutes, second most on the ‘Hawks. And more than twice what Ben Eager has (to be fair, Hossa’s also played in four more games).

When a team is rolling as well as the Blackhawks are, no one cares about contracts and cap hits. But the second a team like that struggles, the guys with the huge salaries better start scoring (or making huge saves) or they’re going to get called out.

One person who’s been way ahead of everyone else on the calling-out-the-Blackhawks future trend is one-time ‘Hawk (and Shark) Jeremy Roenick, who’s officially on record as pulling for the Sharks.

But I don’t want to rain on Chicago’s parade. The city is in a great place. Blackhawks merchandise is selling like hot cakes. And there are even rumors (rumors pretty much confirmed to be untrue) impending NBA free agent LeBron James is house hunting in Chicago.

I wonder if James is a hockey fan.

Blackhawks Advance on Canucks’ Generosity

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 12 May 2010 10:02:20 +0000

Rick Morrissey’s column this morning is about how the Blackhawks finally re-discovered their killer instinct in beating Vancouver to move into the Western Conference finals.

That’s certainly part of what helped Chicago move past Vancouver, but the Canucks also looked slightly out of sync during the series.

Vancouver would control the puck for long stretches, cycling the puck, and finding shots, but they had trouble converting.

It could speak to Chicago goalie Antti Niemi’s skills. It could speak to Chicago’s defense in general. But mostly it seemed to speak to the Canucks being a step behind the Blackhawks in getting to rebounds.

It was almost like the Canucks gave up on certain sequences, figuring they could have the puck back in a little bit.

I’m sure the people of Vancouver will lay this loss at the feet of Roberto Luongo, their goalie, and while last night, and this series, wasn’t his finest work, he didn’t have much help in front of him.

Modern NHL coaches will tell you puck control/management is key, because it means the other team doesn’t have the puck, but if teams aren’t converting on their possessions, they’re keeping the other team in the game.

And allowing Chicago to stay in the game didn’t make Luongo’s job any easier.

Morrissey is right that the Blackhawks found their killer instinct last night, but he also should have mentioned that somewhere in the series, the Canucks lost their killer instinct. They had many chances throughout the series to put Chicago away, but while the Canucks would dominate play, all too often, the dominance didn’t lead to goals. Vancouver allowed Chicago to survive too many rushes and Chicago took advantage.

Vancouver coach Alain Vigneault surely knows what his team needs to work on next season: urgency in getting to loose pucks, to help with second-chance goals. Also, as long as he’s developing a game plan for next season, he might want to work on the penalty kill. It wasn’t an issue last night, but Vancouver finishes the playoffs with a 68% kill percentage, which isn’t going to help anyone in the playoffs — except for opponents.