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Cost Certainty The NHL’s Great Punchline

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 12:43:36 +0000

You’ve got to appreciate the Kings’ willingness to get back on that Ilya Kovalchuk horse.

The Kings are saying that if Kovalchuk’s Devils’ contract doesn’t work out, they might be interested in taking another shot at him.

Minutes after Kovalchuk signed his Devils deal, the rhetoric coming out of his camp was that he always wanted to be a Devil and his talks with LA were more due diligence/contractual leverage than a genuine interest in the Kings’ organization.

So it would seem a little uncomfortable, at least initially, were Kovalchuk to sign his second contract of the summer with the Kings.

The NHL’s rejection of Kovalchuk’s contract also creates an interesting dynamic. The league represents the owners. Devils GM Lou Lamoriello, on behalf of his ownership, extended a contract to Kovalchuk. So by challenging the contract, the league is challenging itself.

The Kovalchuk Saga really puts GM Gary Bettman in an awkward position.

On the one hand, the owners say they want cost certainty. But on the other hand, more and more owners give ridiculously long contracts to free agents to help cushion the cap hit.

I’m sure, on some level, Bettman wants to let the Kovalchuk contract go through, forcing the Devils to deal with whatever fallout comes from the contract, be it a resistance from other teams to make deals with New Jersey, due to anger over the contract (I believe the Amish call this shunning), or other teams using a similar workaround to overpay players.

But on the other hand, I imagine a lot of angry owners have been screaming at Bettman, telling him to nip this contract in the bud, asking Bettman what the lockout actually accomplished.

The timing of all of this is great, though, because yesterday, the Blues finally got restricted free agent David Perron signed to a two-year deal. The signing was key for the Blues as Perron represents a big part of the Blues plan to build a successful NHL team from within.

It’s been a tough road for the Blues, and it’s hard to say how well the initiative is going. There are points over the past few seasons where St. Louis has seen on the verge of success. But there have also been points where things seemed hopeless.

But the Blues have a plan and they’re sticking to it. But would they have more of a chance to build an undeniably successful team had the owners achieved true cost certainty in the lockout? Would there be more parity in the league if more teams had more chances to sign the few players that do actually make it to free agency? Are the Collective Bargaining Agreement’s loopholes reinforcing the NHL’s caste system?

The CBA expires in September 2011. We’ll see what kind of case the NHL and its players make in the negotiations. But it’s certainly interesting that the biggest enemy to cost certainty in the NHL seems to be a handful of particularly wealthy owners.

The last lockout pitted owners against players. I’m wondering if the next lockout will be owner-on-owner.

Peter Laviolette’s Brilliant Coaching Performance

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 14 May 2010 09:51:31 +0000

Whatever happens tonight in Boston, you have to be really blown away by the performance of Peter Laviolette.

Laviolette came to the Flyers mid-season, taking over a team in utter free fall.

He inherited a seemingly toxic locker room that he’s managed to coach around.

Not only did he guide the Flyers into the playoffs, he has them on the brink of entering the Eastern Conference finals.

And they’re on the brink of the conference finals, despite a sick amount of injuries.

Laviolette’s lost goalies. He’s lost hundred of goalies this season. He lost Jeff Carter, the team’s top scorer. He had to work without Simon Gagne for a stretch.

But Laviolette has responded to these lost players very wisely. He’s bounced Claude Giroux between lines, getting different styles of play based upon what he needs.

He’s used Chris Pronger both defensively and offensively, making match-ups tough. In fact, he’s had his defense active in the offense some nights, and stay-at-home others.

But mostly Laviolette hasn’t been scared to smother teams, specifically the Devils and the Bruins, when it seems he doesn’t have the offensive firepower to win games.

The Flyers often haven’t produced very pretty hockey, but they’ve managed to win, and it’s thanks to Laviolette, who’s coaching has been as big a factor in the playoffs as any Flyer on the ice.

When he replaced John Stevens, he came in and really tried to change things up, system-wise.

He threw a lot of different schemes at the team and now that versatility is paying off.

Tonight, all of the game seven pressure is on the Bruins. No one expected the Flyers to make it this far. No one expected Philadelphia to push this series to a game seven.

Laviolette has kept his team competitive from game-to-game, never letting them look ahead or consider how depleted they really are.

Win or lose, he’s done an incredible job under horrible circumstances.

And based upon the pressure on Boston, I think Laviolette is going to wind up with another round in which to work his magic.

Ryan Miller Makes the Most of Life Without Crosby

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 10 Mar 2010 10:56:35 +0000

Ryan Miller seems to be the beneficiary of Sidney Crosby’s media shyness.

Crosby’s agent has now said Crosby didn’t do Letterman after the Olympics because his schedule was too tight.

I’m not sure if Team Crosby turned down any other high-profile gigs, but it’s hard not to notice Miller is now everywhere and Crosby isn’t.

Miller did the TODAY show this week.

Plus, The Wall Street Journal just had a lengthy feature on the goalie (and goaltending in general).

I’m not sure if Miller is truly benefiting from the lack of Crosby, but it sure seems to be the case.

Obviously, the true litmus test of Miller’s celebrity status would be the square assigned to him, if HOLLYWOOD SQUARES was still on the air.

Also, over in St. Louis, Doug Armstrong is getting ready to transition into the GM job as current GM Larry Pleau prepares to wind things down.

Armstrong is in a tough position. The Blues have some solid pieces, but they’re definitely a work in progress. He won’t be taking over a finished project, which will make for a more challenging take-over. I’m sure Pleau will still have a voice in decisions, whenever Armstrong assumes the GM role, but it seems like there will need to be a lot of communication for things to work well for the Blues.

Age Was More Than Just a Number for Andy Murray

Steven Ovadia — Mon, 04 Jan 2010 10:27:29 +0000

The Blues firing coach Andy Murray was interesting in that many people are saying Murray’s big issue was being too old to relate to his players.

Murray is 58. He was replaced by Davis Payne, 39.

Jeff Gordon said a bigger issue was Murray’s reluctance to develop the team’s young core, perhaps a side-effect of Murray’s age.

I was curious if Murray’s age was that out of line with NHL norms (see chart below).

With the hiring of Payne as the new Blues coach, the median age of an NHL coach is now 48. So Murray was a bit older than his cohort of coaches.

It’s interesting to look at those older coaches, though. They include Jacques Lemaire, 64, of the Devils, who’s coaching one of the best teams in the NHL.

The cohort also includes Washington’s Bruce Boudreau, 54, who’s done an incredible job guiding a young Washington team.

But you also have to notice Pat Quinn, 66, the NHL’s oldest coach, who seems to have had very little impact on Edmonton, and who in fact, might be more of a figurehead than a coach.

As near as I can tell, though, age isn’t a huge indicator of coaching failure or success.

St. Louis seems to be spinning the coaching move as an age thing, probably because fans want to buy into the idea that a hugely successful team is right around the corner. The fact of the matter is, Murray coached his team beyond their talent to get them into the playoffs last season. This season, he couldn’t repeat the trick.

As Puck Daddy pointed out, the home record and the powerplay were certainly issues for Murray, but I’m sure he could have solved those given a few more weeks. But by suggesting there were age-related communication issues, the Blues have given the fans hope that once players mature a little bit more, the Blues will become a mid-Western Pittsburgh Penguins.

If Davis Payne doesn’t perform for the Blues, expect his firing to be accompanied by an explanation that he was too young for the job and the youthful St. Louis players didn’t take him seriously enough.

Of course, by that time the young St. Louis core will be approaching middle age.

Sharks Want More Games

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 10:57:36 +0000

David Pollak had an interesting take on the Sharks’ recent troubles, via coach Todd McLellan: The team simply wasn’t playing frequently enough to establish a rhythm.

The Sharks have won their last two, with a victory over Anaheim Thursday and a win over Dallas last night. Since there were quite a few days between the games, maybe McLellan is getting better at simulating that game rhythm.

I feel like this oddly compressed/relaxed pre-Olympic NHL schedule has everyone out of sorts.

Also, Andy Murray of the Blues has sort of resigned himself to the slow-starting David Backes, announcing that it is now officially a given Backes will take 25 games to get going.

The obvious solution? Start Backes’ season 25 games earlier.

Finally, congratulations to goalie Marty Brodeur, for taking ownership of the NHL shutout record. It’s an amazing record and Brodeur really hasn’t lost a step, but are the Devils ever going to rest him? How long can he keep this up?

Big Goalie Night

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 10:54:04 +0000

Last night was kind of interesting. There were 10 games played, with four shutouts.

Goalies Steve Mason (CBJ), Ryan Miller (BUF), Ty Conklin (backup; STL), and Nik Backstrom (MIN) each kept the red light off behind them.

So is this a sign defense is back in the NHL? Is the NHL reverting to its pre-lockout lockdown defensive mode?

Flipping around, it seems more like a sign the NHL season is just too long. Teams are out of gas and seem to be having trouble bringing the proper energy levels to each game.

Although, to be fair, Miller’s night against the Caps included some pretty amazing saves. But Minnesota-Colorado was pretty devoid of energy as was the Blues win over a tired-looking Detroit. Columbus played a strong defensive game against Florida, but the Panthers have looked tired since American Thanksgiving.

I don’t have data on the last time the NHL had this many shutouts in a night, but it seems to be a pretty rare thing. You can look at it as some strong goalies having solid games, but the reality is probably more that some strong and some struggling teams had a night where they didn’t have very much steam.

The NHL is cramming in games to make room for the Olympics and we’re starting to see the effect in the on-ice product. It’s good for goalies but probably dull for fans. Does anyone want to watch a bunch of exhausted men skate around?

Speaking of on-ice product, why is Ottawa both mad and surprised Alex Kovalev’s been slumping this season? How did they not realize this is what Kovalev does?

Lack of Blues Power

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 10:46:38 +0000

It’s hard to know what to say about the Blues and their 20 points in 21 games.

On the one hand, you could say they’re a team that’s struggling. On the other hand, they also struggled last season and then made a miracle push into the playoffs. So maybe this is just a team that just likes some pressure.

Jeremy Rutherford examined everything that’s going wrong for the team, from an awful power play, to David Backes and Paul Kariya suddenly going ice cold.

In fact, the only thing keeping them going is a great penalty kill.

It’s hard to say how to fix this. On paper, things shouldn’t be this bad. As we move toward the trade deadline, even though the Blues are out of the playoffs right now, I wouldn’t be surprised to see them upgrade a little bit with an eye toward being competitive for all of next season.

Darwin: ‘Hull Evolved More Than Most’

Steven Ovadia — Mon, 09 Nov 2009 10:29:27 +0000

Tim Panaccio took a quick look back at Brett Hull’s career.

That amazing wrist shot from the circle? It was actually his dad, Bobby Hull’s, idea. Which is shocking, since Bobby Hull is synonymous with the slapshot. But the elder Hull said the quicker NHL game required a quicker shot.

It’s funny how we’ve come full circle. You rarely see anyone scoring off the rush from the circles. And as great as Brett Hull was, I don’t think he’d have nearly as many of those kinds of goals if he played his prime in the modern NHL. Goalies are simply too big and there’s too much traffic in front of the net to score with any kind of regularity from that far out.

In fact, if I was going to tell a young player to develop any particular shot, I think I’d suggest they work on a slapshot — something that can get through to the net. Not that it would lead to many goals, but the ability to rocket the puck in from the blueline can certainly set up other people for goals.

And that’s really one the neat things about hockey. The game evolves (and sometimes devolves) over time. What works for one generation doesn’t work for another. The ability to evolve is what separates the good players from the great players. Brett Hull developed his wrist shot because it worked. But I have no doubt if he had played in the current era, he would have developed a mammoth slapshot that would have scared the padding out of opposing goalies.

Also, my latest column on how coaches tend to put too much faith in the impact of speed is up.

Some NHL GMs Already Prepared to Surrender

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 04 Nov 2009 10:59:48 +0000

What a crazy season.

Jeff Gordon says he’s already hearing trade chatter from certain NHL GMs, with many already thinking about giving up their season and trying to dump salary.

What separates NHL GMs from most other sports, is that NHL GMs only seem to think about salary implications after a contract is signed.

Vinny Lecavalier, under attack in Tampa, has to be one of those names being whispered about (despite a strong game last night and despite a no-trade clause). People are surprised by Lecavalier’s struggle; I was surprised by his success.

Carolina will also probably be a fire sale, although the Hurricanes seem to alternate strong/awful seasons with a relatively static line-up.

The fact that there are GMs who have already given up on their season is pretty sad, though. Did no one in management see St. Louis’ miracle run last season?

On the flip side of dumping salary, if the play of the Avs continues to be strong, they’ll probably be buyers before the trade deadline. Terry Frei didn’t realize how good the Avs were until he went to Canada and saw the attention the Avalanche were garnering.

Blues and Lightning Looking For Earlier Goals

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 22 Oct 2009 10:06:08 +0000

After the lockout, everyone talked about the new NHL, and how a premium would be placed on offense.

In the new NHL, we were told speed and talent would matter. Players would be free to actually play, and wouldn’t spend entire periods with sticks embedded in their abdomens.

It seems that crazy-sounding idea continues to blossom.

We’re finally in a position where offense matters in the NHL. Teams can still win with defense, but it better be really tight defense.

We’re seeing the importance of offense in the struggle of two teams: the Blues and the Lightning. Both teams are off to tough starts and both of those tough starts are related to their first-period play.

Tampa has just one first period goal this season, but has surrendered nine. St. Louis has just four but has surrendered nine.

The Blues are trying to figure out just where they lost their jump. I’m going to just jump in and tell Blues management the problem: you started the season in Europe. The Wings aren’t feeling it because of their depth. The Blackhawks because of their youth. And the Panthers aren’t feeling it because you can’t break a broken glass.

Of course, the Lightning have no excuse for their struggles. Coach Rick Tocchet is trying to get his team to focus on winning puck battles. And that’s a good start. But he also might look into getting them scoring, too. Maybe that’s phase 2.

Still, while it’s tough for teams like the Blues and the Lightning, it’s nice to see other teams looking to score early into games, rather than just trying to keep the puck away from the other team.