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Lightning and Devils Use Gagne and Kovalchuk to Show Different Approaches to Cap

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 20 Jul 2010 10:52:52 +0000

It’s pretty perfect that Ilya Kovalchuk was signed to a massive contract by the Devils on the same day the Lightning traded for Simon Gagne.

It shows the two styles of managing in the NHL.

On the one hand, you have the Devils going for the expensive, long-term contract. In Kovalchuk’s case, it’s 17 years, $102 million, with a cap hit of just $6 million per season.

With the signing of Kovalchuk, the Devils now need to dump salary, meaning the Devils will probably go at least another season without a top line center.

The Devils will proably send the next few seasons dumping salary to fit Kovalchuk under the cap, depending, of course, upon what the next CBA brings the NHL.

When a team goes for the huge contract, the usual price for acquiring a big player, is that existing salary needs to go to fit the contract. And salary usually correlates to talent.

So the Devils, by signing Kovalchuk, have gotten stronger, but by having to dump salary, they’re going to get weaker. And given that the entire league knows just how much the Devils need to dump, they probably won’t get much back for whoever they wind up trading away.

This isn’t a big deal if Kovalchuk plays as the Devils expect and is able to pretty much dominate on his own. But if Kovalchuk needs any kind of lift, any kind of complementary player on his line that the Devils don’t already have under contract, it’s going to be tough to bring that player in.

The flip side of managing in the NHL is Gagne’s trade to Tampa.

The Flyers wanted cap space, presumably to sign a number one goalie (although no one will be surprised if the Flyers don’t upgrade their goalie position, since it seems to be something the team rates just above dental work and colonoscopies).

The Flyers got back defenseman Matt Walker, an unexceptional defenseman, for Gagne.

But the Lightning? They got an intriguing player. Gagne is fierce when he’s healthy, but his health has been an issue. But assuming he can stay healthy, can you imagine Gagne with Steve Stamkos?

Think about how well Stamkos played with Steve Downie last season. Downie is hardly an offensive presence, but his ability to create space for Stamkos paid off for both players. Now, add another big body to help create even more space for Stamkos. But a big body that can score consistently, like Gagne can.

Suddenly, the Lightning not only have two scary-as-anything scoring lines, but they also have the ability to spread some of that scoring down to a third line, if new coach Guy Boucher is so inclined.

If Gagne stays healthy and performs as well as he did in the playoffs, he’s also going to take a lot of pressure off of Martin St. Louis and Vincent Lecavalier, helping them see better match-ups. And if he’s put on a line with those two? That could certainly work also.

Teams like the Lightning, that stay under the cap, have the ability to get players like Gagne for virtually nothing. Plus, if we fast forward to the trade deadline, even more players of Gagne-like quality (with the risk that implies) will be available.

Because as teams like the Devils become capped out and unable to retain quality players, teams like the Lightning have the ability to swoop in and grab the cap victims.

It’s not simply a matter of the Devils having made a bad move yesterday, while the Lightning made a good one.

Instead, the issue is the Devils lost a whole lot of roster flexibility while the Lightning kept their options open.

If the Devils don’t need roster flexibility or options over the course of the season, it’s a moot point. But if the Devils do need to add some pieces, it’s going to be a tough road for them.

If the Lightning find themselves needing to add some pieces, the only question is going to be which team’s cap to pick over.

Nikolai Zherdev Would Be an Uneccessary Risk for Flyers

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 08 Jul 2010 10:48:34 +0000

Obviously, the deal isn’t done, and we don’t know the terms, but unless they’re going to get him for a tiny amount of money, I can’t believe the Flyers are considering signing Nik Zherdev.

Or more to the point, I can’t believe the Flyers would sign Zherdev, even though it makes it more likely they’ll have to move Simon Gagne and even though the Flyers have yet to address their goaltending issue.

But even if you ignore the salary implications of Zherdev, the hockey issues aren’t any brighter.

Zherdev is talented, but he doesn’t apply that talent consistently. He doesn’t like to get into high traffic areas, so you’ll often see him floating just off the boards, ostensibly taking himself out of the play.

I’m not sure how that style of play will go over on a team like the Flyers, that pretty much lives and dies trying to get between and below the opposing faceoff circles.

Zherdev doesn’t have much of a defensive game, either. In fact, when he last played in the NHL, back in the 2008-09 season, he could be downright irresponsible, leaving the defensive zone too soon and not getting physical with anyone.

Some nights, he looked like a human pylon.

I can see why the Flyers like the idea of Zherdev. He’s fast. He shows flashes of breathtaking talent. I’m sure the Flyers are salivating at the idea of Zherdev and Danny Briere shooting down the ice, blowing past everyone. And I’m sure Zherdev will give them a few of those moments. But I’m not sure Flyers’ GM Paul Holmgren is also considering the times when Zherdev will disappear, leaving his linemates to fend for themselves.

Zherdev spent last season playing in the KHL. Maybe that helped his game mature. Maybe playing in the KHL made him realize just how much he wants to play in the NHL and maybe he’s now willing to work hard to keep an NHL job. Zherdev might not be the same player he was two years ago.

But considering the Flyers are exploring the idea of trading Gagne for cap reasons and considering the Flyers still don’t have a true starting goalie, I’m not sure why they’re experimenting with a player like Zherdev, whose upside seems to be entirely theoretical.

No one managed to tap his full potential in five NHL seasons. It’s bold for the Flyers to think they’re the team that can help him finally fully realize his talent.

Unless the Flyers sign him at a rock-bottom price, which hasn’t been Zherdev’s past modus operandi, he’s a risk the Flyers just can’t afford to take right now.

Evgeni Nabokov a Victim of Stanley Cup Finals Goaltending

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 23 Jun 2010 10:07:39 +0000

San Jose goaltender Evgeni Nabokov was a victim of this year’s Stanley Cup playoffs.

First of all, these playoffs allowed Nabokov to once again show he’s not a big-game goalie. He just wasn’t very strong.

But also, watching goalies like Ryan Miller and Roberto Luongo fail to carry their teams had to register with Sharks GM Doug Wilson.

This year’s playoffs saw some once-anonymous goalies get hot while the big goalie names were merely mortal.

So I’m sure Wilson did the math and realized that an average playoff goalie and a diminished need for a big-name goalie means Nabokov just isn’t worth the money he wants.

And so we have the Sharks announcing they won’t try and re-sign him.

I don’t think this is about ability, so much as it’s about money. I suspect a lot of GMs are looking at what happened in this year’s playoffs and are wondering how much sense it makes to commit a lot of money to the goalie position, no matter the ability of the goalie.

The fact that Nabokov has struggled so much under the spotlight of important games makes the decision not to re-sign him a lot easier.

Obviously, it’s very early to tell, but I’m wondering if the future of NHL goaltending is quantity over quality. Rather than invest a lot of money in one player, I’m curious if teams will try and use a greater number of goalies, starting whoever’s hot and/or healthy.

It worked for Philadelphia, who lost about ten goalies to injury, but managed to make it to the Finals on the strength of solid-if-not-spectacular goaltending. And the money the Flyers weren’t spending on goaltending could be put into the defensemen and forwards.

Of course, the Canadians famously traded Jaroslav Halak to put all of their eggs in the Carey Price basket.

On the one hand, that’s the NHL tradition: investing in just one strong, number one goalie.

On the other hand, that could represent the new NHL way: the Habs appreciate Halak’s playoff work, but don’t want to spend a lot of money when they might be able to support Price with more disposable goaltending, the theory being a cheap and solid goalie is better than an expensive and extraordinary one, from a salary cap perspective.

And with all of the free agent goaltending available, there should be a lot of reasonably-priced talent available for the Sharks.

The final test of if NHL teams are adjusting the weight attached to the goaltending position will be to see if Nabokov is signed by another NHL team and how much money he gets.

I’m guessing if another team re-signs him, it’ll be for less than the $5.4 million he made this season.

I’m also guessing they might view Nabokov as more of a regular season option than a strong post-season one.

Comparing Hossas to Hartnells

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 11 Jun 2010 10:05:22 +0000

The playoffs are over so of course, eyes turn to next season.

The Flyers, who lost in six games, are left with quite a few roster questions, from what to do about goaltending to how to where to find defensive depth.

But the most intriguing question Tim Panaccio asks is what to do about Scott Hartnell, so disappointing during the regular season but so brilliant in the playoffs.

I’m interested in Hartnell because of how he compared to Chicago’s Marian Hossa. Both were second line guys who saw important minutes. Hartnell finished the playoffs with eight goals (three on the powerplay), nine assists, +4, with 25 penalty minutes.

Hossa finished the playoffs with three goals (all even strength), 12 assists, +7, and 25 penalty minutes.

A lot of what Hossa did for Chicago, in terms of his shockingly solid forecheck and backcheck, didn’t show up on the stats sheet, but the same could be said for Hartnell.

So in the playoffs, I think you have to consider Hartnell outplayed Hossa. Of course, you also have to consider Hartnell has a $4.2 million cap until 2013 while Hossa’s is $5.2 million over the next 11 years.

Obviously, Philadelphia will want to watch Hartnell’s performance next season, but he seems like a pretty solid deal.

In terms of Hossa, he had a great post-season, but did he really live up to his cap hit? It’s hard to quantify. Since the Blackhawks won the Cup, it’s not something people are going to ask right away. But as Chicago needs to retain players and sign new ones? The question will certainly come up again.

Of course, it’s mostly an academic question, since I can’t see anyone being interested in trading for a contract that long. Not with Mike Milbury out of the GM game.

But Mike Heika is already asking who can be poached from Chicago.

Heika guesses goalie Cristobal Huet and defenseman Brian Campbell are both in play, assuming anyone would want that kind of salary. He also thinks Patrick Sharp and Kris Versteeg might also be available.

And that’s another advantage to winning the Cup (other than, you know, having won the Cup). All of these players (minus Huet) now have an aura of success that make them much more attractive to teams. Sharp and Versteeg were always solid players but having seen them in the post-season, I imagine a lot of NHL teams will be interested in trying to trade for them.

It’s sad that the cap makes it so hard to keep a team together. The Blackhawks lifted the Cup Wednesday night and within 48 hours all we can think about it is who Chicago will try and trade away.

At least they got to enjoy a couple of days, though.

Blackhawks Lift Stanley Cup Outside the Box

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 10 Jun 2010 10:08:52 +0000

I don’t remember a finals quite like this one.

When is the last time you saw such average-to-poor goaltending?

Flyers goalie Michael Leighton should have had at least two of the four goals he gave up, including the game-winner. Chicago goalie Antti Niemi continued to surrender some of the worst rebounds I’ve ever seen. His defense did a huge job keeping those rebounds away from the Flyers.

I don’t think anyone thinks Leighton or Niemi are going to be factors for either team next season.

And when is the last time you saw so much up-and-down play? Neither team would slow things down, especially in game six. The whole series was pretty much stretch passes through the neutral zone.

Also, I don’t recall a series where coaches stuck to their lines so religiously.

Much was made of Joel Quenneville’s decision to break-up the Jonathan Toews-Patrick Kane-Dustin Byfuglien line when they were struggling against Chris Pronger, but it’s fairly standard coaching to break lines up to get away from bad match-ups. In fact, there are lots of tricks, like double-shifting players, hiding stars on lower lines, or even changing lines. But Quenneville seemed reluctant to do these kinds of things on the fly with his key players.

Flyers coach Peter Laviolette was also loyal to his lines. Sure, he moved Ville Leino to the top line toward the end of game six, but I was surprised he didn’t mix-and-match more, just to get away from the Duncan Keith-Brent Seabrook defensive pair that shadowed the Flyers super successful so-called second line (Danny Briere-Scott Hartnell-Leino).

I understand that Laviolette probably kept his lines because the second line was working and game six was never really out of his reach, but I wonder if new lines would have thrown Quenneville off of his game. Especially since Laviolette had the last change last night.

The fact that the finals were so different is what made them so great. Both coaches chose offense over defense, trying to win the series on the backs of their best players, not their most defensively stifling. That’s what made the series so exciting to watch.

I’ve never watched someone lift the Stanley Cup and thought ‘Wow. I wish the series could go another seven games.’ This year, that’s what I was thinking.

Quenneville and Laviolette coached outside of conventional NHL coaching wisdom and it made for some very entertaining hockey.

I hope other coaches and GMs took notes and are prepared to challenge some more NHL coaching assumptions when the regular season resumes. As we saw in the playoffs, great things happen when coaches get creative.

And hockey can be very exciting with below-average goaltending on both ends of the ice.

Guy Boucher Chooses Tampa Lightning

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 08 Jun 2010 10:01:36 +0000

A lot of NHL teams are making the most of the Stanley Cup intermission.

The Blue Jackets hired Scott Arniel after getting turned down by Guy Boucher.

Arniel is an AHL coach who was in the mix for the Oilers coaching job before it went to Pat Quinn.

Boucher reportedly turned down the Columbus job to take a job as head coach of the Tampa Lightning, which just goes to show you that Andy Warhol was right, when he said that in the future, everyone will coach the Tampa Lightning for 15 minutes.

Boucher is a better fit for Tampa then he was for Columbus. Defenseman Mattias Ohlund definitely has the puck-carrying skills required by Boucher’s system and playing under Boucher will do great things for the young Victor Hedman.

But I think Tampa GM Steve Yzerman really liked Boucher’s psychology background, what with one of the Lightning coach’s big responsibilities being motivating Vinnie Lecavalier. In fact, if I were the GM of the Lightning, I might hire a team coach and a personal coach for Lecavalier.

Boucher is a young guy with no NHL experience and he’s already had two job offers in the span of a few hours. You have to wonder if the pressure of it all will catch up with him at some point. Especially given that he’ll be learning the coaching ropes in the historically dysfunctional Tampa organization.

Meanwhile, out in New Jersey, the coach search seems down to Michel Therrien and Devils hero/perennial coaching candidate John MacLean.

Both are strong candidates but it’s interesting to see the different comfort levels in franchises. The Devils are all about NHL-proven ability, which is why they’ve been so reluctant to pull the trigger on MacLean, a beloved Devil with lots of assistant coaching experience, but no time as an NHL head coach. I can’t see GM Lou Lamoriello ever taking a chance on a guy like Boucher, with no NHL experience.

Of course, you have to wonder why anyone wants to coach in the NHL. Not when they have to participate in exchanges like this:

Q. Peter, are you sticking with Michael in goal?
Peter Laviolette: I don’t comment on line-ups.

Of course. Why would anyone want a coach to comment on his line-up? During the Stanley Cup finals. In a potential elimination situation. What a silly question.

Yzerman is hoping Boucher has the same chance to be just as ridiculous some day.

John Madden No Longer Needs an Elite Goalie

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 04 Jun 2010 10:09:48 +0000

John Madden of the Blackhawks is finding time to stir things up.

Right in the middle of the Stanley Cup finals, he managed to take a shot at the Devils, his old team, calling the 2009-10 Blackhawks the best team he’s ever played for:

This team is way deeper. Just take a look at the lineup…This is a different type of team, too. Those [Devils] teams were pre-lockout teams. This is post-lockout. There is a lot more skill, a lot more speed. It’s totally different than any team I’ve ever played on, that’s for sure.

I get what Madden is saying in terms of depth and speed and skill (although back in the day, Madden was actually quite fast) in Chicago, but how can he not miss goalie Martin Brodeur? The Blackhawks have one vulnerability, but it’s a huge one: goaltending.

Antti Niemi has looked completely incapable of blocking a shot into the corners. He seems to prefer sending everything to one of the faceoff circles.

It’s interesting, though, that when you’re dealing with two average goaltenders and two teams running relatively offensive systems, goaltending isn’t as vital as it was in the NHL’s more defensive moments. Which is why Madden isn’t preoccupied with the quality of his team’s goaltending. It’s just not as big an issue as it was when Madden played for New Jersey.

Having said that, I think both the Flyers and Blackhawks would have a lot of trouble against a disciplined, defensive team with a strong goaltender.

And given how much fun this finals has been to watch, I hope the NHL is thinking about ways to prevent goalies from dominating games. Like maybe actually shrinking goalie equipment down to mid 90s size, instead of shaving a few meaningless inches off. Something like that would give just about every game more scoring and more exciting saves.

Smaller goalie equipment would make a lot more goalies play average. And, like Madden says, skill and speed would be a lot more valuable.

Blackhawks Doing a Lot of Little Things Well in Finals

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 02 Jun 2010 10:04:11 +0000

To be honest, I hadn’t noticed this myself, but apparently the Blackhawks are blocking a lot of shots.

It’s not that surprising, though. The Blackhawks are doing a great job keeping Philadelphia to the outside. A lot of times it seems fairly obvious where the Flyers’ shot has to come from, making it easy to block.

Peter Laviolette has tried to adjust by having shots come in from the point, but the Blackhawks seem fairly content to let the Flyers settle for something shot in from the blue line.

In general, I’ve been knocked out by all of the little things the Blackhawks do so well.

They’re always in shooting lanes. Since game one, they’ve kept the Flyers out of the slot. And even moving through the neutral zone, they’ll lift the puck over the Flyers, almost like a punt. Using the air attack keeps the puck off of Flyers sticks. But it also seems to make it difficult for Philadelphia to know where the puck is. It’s pretty clever.

The Blackhawks have even used their punt to launch some breakaways.

Having said that, the first two games of the finals have been very close. I haven’t been knocked out by Antti Niemi’s positioning, or lack thereof, and if the Flyers can get to loose pucks a hair quicker, it looks like they can really put up some goals. In fact, I’d use Pronger down low, more like a forward, to capitalize on his size and reach. Niemi gets down very quickly; with Pronger in his face, I think someone could get something past him.

I’m not sure how trainable Dan Carcillo is at this point in the season, but he could probably fill a similar role, although that would entail not running around the ice like a maniac, which might not sit well with him.

Speaking of the finals, here’s a very comprehensive look at the life and work of Doc Emrick.

Emrick’s been great calling the finals. Eddie Olczyk, his color guy, often doesn’t seem to have his mic properly adjusted, though. He’s pretty much impossible to hear during play.

Flyers Now Afraid of Nothing

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 25 May 2010 09:58:14 +0000

The best part of the Flyers clinching last night?

Watching Philadelphia captain Mike Richards embrace the Wales Trophy.

Many, many players believe if you touch the conference-clinching trophy, you won’t win the Cup. Also, many players believe that by ignoring the trophy, you’re sending the message you only care about winning the Cup.

After some debate about what to do about the trophy, Richards totally went for it:

There was actually a little bit of a debate on the ice…I thought about it a bit [Sunday] night. My first instinct was to grab it. Obviously, it took us a lot to get here and obviously [that’s] not the trophy that we want. But we haven’t done anything conventional all year, especially in these playoffs, so I might as well go against the grain one more time.

Meanwhile, when the Blackhawks clinched the West, Jonathan Toews kept an arm behind his back, just to make sure he didn’t accidentally touch the Campbell Trophy.

Toews said it wasn’t a superstition issue, though:

I had thought about [whether to touch the Campbell Trophy] a long time ago and I just think maybe to some people it looks like it’s a lack of confidence to not touch it or it’s a superstitious thing, but I think it shows more confidence. To us, it’s a made-up trophy for winning the Western Conference. You know, big deal, it’s not what we’re after. We’re here to win the Stanley Cup. That celebration with the fans and us getting these hats, that’s enough for us. We’re going to keep going. We’re not satisfied yet.

I have to say, from a confidence perspective, I think it’s pretty impressive that Richards went for it. As soon as he did that, I knew the Flyers saw themselves as a team in control of their own destiny. Richards sent a message to his team and to the Blackhawks that Philadelphia is a team that will win and lose on its own terms.

I know Richards takes a lot of heat for his captain-ing abilities, but grabbing the Wales was a great gesture that let his team see the only thing the Flyers need to believe in are their own abilities.

Conversely, by not picking up the Campbell Trophy, Toews sends a little bit of a nervous vibe about the playoffs. I get that he says the Blackhawks only want the Cup (or the hats, which seem to mean a lot to him for some reason), but it would have been a more effective message if Toews hadn’t seemed deathly afraid to even make eye contact with the Campbell.

If the Flyers want to get involved in some gamesmanship, they might consider taping a photo of the Campbell Trophy to Michael Leighton’s chest. That’ll be sure to keep Chicago away from him.

Habs Beat Flyers Like Flyers Beat Habs

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 21 May 2010 09:52:33 +0000

I loved last night’s Montreal win over the Flyers.

In the first two games of the series, I noticed Montreal’s defensemen trying to break-up plays up near the circles. They wanted to stop the Flyers and get the puck out as quickly as possible, which makes sense.

But the Flyers are so quick and shifty up front, they were able to get around the Habs defense with plenty of room to make a multiple move play in front of Montreal goalie Jaroslav Halak.

Last night, the Flyers went down early, and their defense tried to make plays up high, giving Montreal forwards the opportunity to get in back of them to make a play in front of Philadelphia goalie Michael Leighton.

A sick Chris Pronger got burned that way a few times. He was on the ice for four of Montreal’s even-strength goals.

He definitely wasn’t have a great game, but he also looked like he was thinking offense not defense, trying to get his team back in the game. And that meant subtle pinches in his defensive zone that gave Montreal all of the space they needed.

Both teams need to do the same thing: make sure their defensemen are playing back so if the other team does get in back of them, there’s only enough time and space for a quick shot, not a move (or two) and a shot.

I get the logic of playing defensemen up higher, shadowing the forwards before they make a move, but that whole strategy falls apart when the forward beats the defensemen. And the forwards in this series are so fast, they’ve been able to regularly get around the defense.

And let’s be honest. The defense can play down low since they know where the forwards want to end up: in front of the goalie. There’s no mystery there. And if the offensive team wants to take a shot sooner, free from the defense, I think both teams have goalies strong enough to handle a shot from the circles (although I haven’t seen Halak or Leighton strong enough in the same game yet).

So last night’s game was fun because the Habs gave the Flyers a taste of their own medicine. Plus, now we’ve got a series.