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Cost Certainty The NHL’s Great Punchline

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 23 Jul 2010 12:43:36 +0000

You’ve got to appreciate the Kings’ willingness to get back on that Ilya Kovalchuk horse.

The Kings are saying that if Kovalchuk’s Devils’ contract doesn’t work out, they might be interested in taking another shot at him.

Minutes after Kovalchuk signed his Devils deal, the rhetoric coming out of his camp was that he always wanted to be a Devil and his talks with LA were more due diligence/contractual leverage than a genuine interest in the Kings’ organization.

So it would seem a little uncomfortable, at least initially, were Kovalchuk to sign his second contract of the summer with the Kings.

The NHL’s rejection of Kovalchuk’s contract also creates an interesting dynamic. The league represents the owners. Devils GM Lou Lamoriello, on behalf of his ownership, extended a contract to Kovalchuk. So by challenging the contract, the league is challenging itself.

The Kovalchuk Saga really puts GM Gary Bettman in an awkward position.

On the one hand, the owners say they want cost certainty. But on the other hand, more and more owners give ridiculously long contracts to free agents to help cushion the cap hit.

I’m sure, on some level, Bettman wants to let the Kovalchuk contract go through, forcing the Devils to deal with whatever fallout comes from the contract, be it a resistance from other teams to make deals with New Jersey, due to anger over the contract (I believe the Amish call this shunning), or other teams using a similar workaround to overpay players.

But on the other hand, I imagine a lot of angry owners have been screaming at Bettman, telling him to nip this contract in the bud, asking Bettman what the lockout actually accomplished.

The timing of all of this is great, though, because yesterday, the Blues finally got restricted free agent David Perron signed to a two-year deal. The signing was key for the Blues as Perron represents a big part of the Blues plan to build a successful NHL team from within.

It’s been a tough road for the Blues, and it’s hard to say how well the initiative is going. There are points over the past few seasons where St. Louis has seen on the verge of success. But there have also been points where things seemed hopeless.

But the Blues have a plan and they’re sticking to it. But would they have more of a chance to build an undeniably successful team had the owners achieved true cost certainty in the lockout? Would there be more parity in the league if more teams had more chances to sign the few players that do actually make it to free agency? Are the Collective Bargaining Agreement’s loopholes reinforcing the NHL’s caste system?

The CBA expires in September 2011. We’ll see what kind of case the NHL and its players make in the negotiations. But it’s certainly interesting that the biggest enemy to cost certainty in the NHL seems to be a handful of particularly wealthy owners.

The last lockout pitted owners against players. I’m wondering if the next lockout will be owner-on-owner.

How Ilya Kovalchuk Should Have Handled Free Agency

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 10:58:57 +0000

As a public service to both Ilya Kovalchuk and hockey fans, I’m going to list some things Kovalchuk could have done to prevent his extended stay in NHL Free Agent Purgatory.

Free Samples
At the end of the 2007-08 season, Marian Hossa left Pittsburgh to sign a one-year deal with Detroit. Hossa could have gotten a longer deal somewhere else, but by taking the one-year internship in Detroit, Hossa did a few things:

He showed his commitment to winning, by taking less money for the chance to win a Cup.
He showed GMs what he brings to a team by helping Detroit once again reach the Stanley Cup finals (although, to be candid, Detroit did lose the Cup that year).
He improved his game, learning things from many of the Detroit players. Hossa didn’t have a down-low game before he spent a year with the Wings. He’s a much more complete player because of that one season.

That season in Detroit improved Hossa’s value on the free agent market. NHL GMs would be much more comfortable with Kovalchuk if he gave GMs a “free” season somewhere to show everyone just what he brings to the table.

A great season somewhere would remove any doubts GMs have about throwing a lot of money at Kovalchuk. Sure, he’d lose a year of salary, but a strong season would result in a contract that would more than make up for what he left gave up for that one season.

Decide Which is More Important: Winning or Money
If the numbers being thrown around are true, Kovalchuk has already turned down several opportunities to be a very well-compensated player. That tells us Kovalchuk is interested in money.

But before Kovalchuk was traded to New Jersey last season, he turned down a 12-year, $101 million deal from the Thrashers, which is more than anyone else has offered so far. At the time, the thought was that Kovalchuk turned down the Atlanta deal because he wanted to win.

If he wants money, he should have taken the Atlanta deal. If he wants to win, he should decide if he things New Jersey or LA is the better team and then sign with one of them. But he can’t keep floating between the idea of getting a cap-busting contract and the idea of winning, because the two thoughts are pretty much mutually exclusive in the real world.

Read the Market
Kovalchuk came into free agency following a Stanley Cup finals featuring two teams with depth and versatility. Neither team had a top guy per se. Instead, both teams featured a few talented players. So much so, that Jonathan Toews winning the Conn Smythe seemed more like a coin-flip-driven decision than an intellectual one.

In last season’s Cup finals, everyone was an MVP and no one was an MVP.

I’m sure at least a few GMs saw the Finals and thought that they wanted a team like Chicago or Philadelphia. Putting all of a team’s eggs into the Kovalchuk basket would be the antithesis of the Chicago/Philadelphia strategy. Sure, the Blackhawks gave a massive contract to Hossa last year, but it wasn’t until they had a lot of fantastic pieces already in place. And while Hossa was fantastic in the playoffs, ultimately Chicago is paying a sick amount of money to a second-line guy. So it’s fair to say, Hossa serves as a little bit of a warning against the massive free agent contract.

NHL GMs saw were reminded that depth is more important than anything. I’m not sure there are any teams that are deep enough for Kovalchuk to represent the final piece of the puzzle, but who also have the cap space to give Kovalchuk the contract he wants.

To get the huge contract, he might have signed someplace else short-term and waited for a more star-driven Cup finals to convince GMs they need the best player available, not a variety of very good players.

I assume the Kovalchuk Purgatory will eventually end, allowing the NHL to get on with the rest of free agency. It’s too late to help Kovalchuk, but hopefully future free agents will see these tips and take them to heart.

Because it’s emotionally draining spending each day waiting for Kovalchuk to sign somewhere.

I’m not sure I can do another summer like this.

Dean Lombardi Criticizes The Golden Goose

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 22 Jan 2010 11:02:08 +0000

Yikes! I’m not sure Kings GM Dean Lombardi got the memo not to upset your up-and-coming franchise defenseman.

Lombardi made some comments about Jack Johnson’s play in Michigan, where Johnson played college hockey. Lombardi also made comments about the quality of the Michigan program.

Did I mention they were negative comments?

Now, Johnson is pretty upset by the comments.

Lobardi says he was quoted accurately so I’m not sure what he was thinking. Obviously, Lombardi is entitled to his opinions, but why alienate a player who’s such an important part of your team’s future?

By the way, the interviews, which are really good, are available at Frozen Royalty.

I especially love how Lombardi talks about how much trouble Johnson had with criticism and then proceeds to criticize him.

I doubt Lombardi’s interview will do irreparable damage to his relationship with Johnson, but why complicate things with an important young player? It just seems like a huge waste of time and energy.

Also, check out this trailer for HOCKEY TOWNS, a TV pilot looking for a network. One of the producers describes it as MAN VS. FOOD for hockey.

As one of many hockey bloggers who is also a die-hard Food Network fan, I think there might be a market for this kind of show.

Finally, my column on how the Rangers have lost their balance.

Again.

Ducks and Kings Feed Off of the Other’s Pain

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 15 Jan 2010 11:01:47 +0000

Question: Can the Ducks and Kings both be good teams at the same time? Can they both be bad teams? Or, my theory here, do they feed off of each other, with the success of one causing the demise of the other, a veritable Western Conference yin and yang?

The Kings recent swoon has coincided with a Ducks hot streak.

But last night belonged to the Kings, who shut-out Anaheim 4-0.

As Helene Elliott points out, the Ducks have always been a second-half team. It’s going to be tough going for Anaheim (and Team Finland), as the Ducks keep accumulating injuries. Teemu Selanne will be out two to six weeks while his jaw heals. Saku Koivu left last night’s loss with a lower-body injury. If I’m Kimmo Timonen, I’m going to wear a mattress out on the ice for the next few days, just to make sure someone can compete for Finland.

It will be interesting to see if the Kings feed off of the Ducks pain and solidify their playoff spot. Or, if my theory is disproved, and both teams finish out of the playoffs.

Speaking of the Olympics, here is my theory on why Chris Drury will actually be huge for Team USA. Hint: It has to do with his being under no pressure since he’s the worst player on the team.

Finally, the worst hockey movies of all time. I actually love MYSTERY, ALASKA and I’m not sure how THE CUTTING EDGE isn’t here, but the rest of these are suitably bad, as promised.

Heatley Not Going Anywhere

Steven Ovadia — Mon, 31 Aug 2009 12:44:46 +0000

Ouch. Teams are now opting out of the Dany Heatley “sweepstakes.” The Kings are the latest team to close the door on the Heatley option, which is pretty telling.

It’s like the Senators are getting rejected for dates they didn’t even ask people out on.

The Kings could use a proven goal-scorer but they’re such a young team, a guy like Heatley could really bring the whole team down quite easily.

Of course, as bad as that would have been for the Kings, things are going to be even worse for the Senators, who are looking more and more stuck with Heatley as training camp approaches.

Teams are being patient about grabbing Heatley because of the serious questions about his attitude coupled with the fact that everyone knows the Senators are desperate to unload him. GM Bryan Murray is looking to get some value back for Heatley but the longer he’s stuck with the disgruntled forward, the lower those trade expectations will fall.

If I’m Murray, I’m announcing that Heatley is off of the table and the Senators have decided to make the best of a bad situation. That forces Heatley to either suck it up and play in Ottawa or to sit out. If Heatley sits out, I’m assuming his salary will come off of the cap, allowing them to replace him. If Heatley focuses and steps up, the Senators are more likely to find a team willing to take him.

The first rule of selling damaged goods is to make them look new. Murray hasn’t fixed Heatley yet. He hasn’t even come close. I’m not saying he needs to fix Heatley’s attitude; he just needs to make it look like it’s been fixed.

Also, thanks to Greg and Sean for including me in Puck Daddy’s Five Reasons I Love Hockey feature.

Smyth Goes Hollywood; Rangers Cast Big Body

Steven Ovadia — Mon, 06 Jul 2009 11:27:36 +0000

The big shock of the weekend, for me, anyway, was Ryan Smyth accepting a trade out of Colorado.

For someone who made a very big deal about where he would sign last year, he sure seemed ready to get the heck out of Denver. And while the Banff native was probably happy to get a little further west, why would anyone willingly go to the Kings (Smyth had a no-trade clause), who are still lots and lots of pieces away from being successful.

Adrian Dater says the writing was on the wall; that all signs indicated the Avs were going to try and unload Smyth and his salary and they go into rebuilding mode. Perhaps Smyth figured if he was going to be a part of a rebuilding effort, it might as well be someplace sunny. Or maybe he realized if he didn’t OK the trade, he could just be waived and claimed without consent.

I also suspect he welcomed the chance to play for a team that’s fortunes were on the way up, rather than on the decline. The Avs are in an absolute freefall, the sharp signing of goalie Craig Anderson aside. The Kings still have a lot of question marks, including their work ethic, but work ethic is certainly something Smyth can help with. His skills are not what they were, but he’s a guy who always goes straight to the net, regardless of what’s going on around him. Or to him. The Kings will learn a lot by watching Smyth.

Speaking of getting to the net, Larry Brooks isn’t a big fan of the Rangers signing Donald Brashear, a bit of a Ranger-beater over the years.

My suspicion is the Rangers want Brashear’s size to set-up in front of the net. New York still lacks any kind of big body and Brashear is big, with decent hands and shockingly OK speed. A lot of teams, most notably Anaheim, are experimenting with using lower-skilled players on the powerplay, to just sit in the slot, looking for rebounds. Even if they can’t convert, the gigantic bodies still acts as a screen for the opposing goalie. Brashear can’t do much, but this is something he can probably handle.

That’s the only reason I can think of for signing an enforcer that old. Of course, most Ranger fans will tell you they’d much prefer a legitimate big man. But the Rangers have never seemed very into that idea. I feel like they’re looking very wistfully at Montreal’s pee wee line.

Trade Deadline — Or Lifeline?

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:06:34 +0000

The trade deadline draws nearer. I’ve always thought the NHL should take a few nights off for it. Get everyone in the same room, players and GMs, and just do the trading right there, live. It would be like when you chose teams when you were a kid. Maybe the NHL could make it even more dramatic and have the GMs bring cash, too. They could use the cash to indicate cap space. Who wouldn’t watch that? I’d watch that every week, let alone once a year. And we all know who’s hosting: Alyssa Milano. That’s a huge hit, right there.

Ducks GM Bob Murray said he won’t be trading Scott Niedermayer, which probably means there wasn’t the right amount of interest in him.

Niedermayer is a great player, but he’s not exactly plug-and-play. It takes time to integrate a derenseman like him into a system. Players have to get used to him since he’ll have stretches where he plays more like a forward than a blueliner. Stay-at-home defensemen are much more interchangeable and are probably seen as less of a risk. Especially for a rental.

Speaking of defensemen who skate like forwards, Bruin Matt Hunwick was moved from defense to forward, to fill-in for the injured Milan Lucic. He’ll be playing with Marc Savard and Phil Kessel until Lucic is ready to return, which could be soon

Returning to California, Kings coach Terry Murray says he doesn’t expect the team to make any deadline moves, continuing the Kings tradition of excellence. The team motto should be “Bad is good enough.”

Also, someone needs to tell the injured Marian Gaborik it’s not a great idea to admit you havn’t been watching games while recuperating. I see it as proof people really don’t enjoy watching the trap.

Finally, my fantasy column is up on RotoRob.

Kings of Indifference

Steven Ovadia — Mon, 23 Feb 2009 11:21:32 +0000

I’m not sure if there’s a connection between these two items:

Tim Panaccio had a pretty standard piece about hockey, and how while it doesn’t have broad appeal, it does have its fans in certain parts of the world. He talks about how the LA papers stopped covering the Ducks and Kings on the road for a lot of reasons, but were able to successfully dump the road coverage because LA isn’t a hockey town.

Yesterday, Helene Elliott had a piece taking the Kings to task for being a bad and disinterested team, without much passion or personality.

The Kings haven’t been to the post-season since 2002. Their last dominant team was the 1993 team that went to the Stanley Cup finals. But they’ve never dominated like the Lakers. And the Lakers are tough to compete with. So would LA be more of a hockey town if the Kings were more successful? Or had more personality? Is it a coincidence the Kings were never bigger in LA then when the game’s greatest star played for them?

(I’m not counting the Ducks in any of this because I’m not sure how much people in LA identify with Anaheim; I assume it’s the same way people in New York City don’t necessarily identify with the Islanders or Devils, both of whom play mere miles from the City).

Personality is a strange thing with hockey. A team doesn’t have to be super successful to have a strong personality, but if you look at most Stanley Cup winners, teams with some kind of group personality seem to have a higher success rate.

Saturday in Buffalo, Scott Gomez ran goalie Ryan Miller and the Sabres just kind of shrugged. Jerry Sullivan sees that as a huge character flaw that indicates the team isn’t ready for a Cup run.

The personality factor is what makes hockey so great. Watching a great team make a strong run is inherently watchable, no matter who you usually root for. Unfortunately, more and more NHL teams are bland. They’re professionals who (often) make smart plays, but not passionate ones. The league tends to focus on scoring as the cure to the league’s inability to move into the sports mainstream, but maybe they should consider the overprofessionalization of the sport, that’s bored the edges off of most players. Just about every hockey fan loves the movie SLAP SHOT, but could the NHL be any further from that? Even someone like Sean Avery is more jerk than edge.

The Kings are vanilla and you see that in the standings. And sometimes, you see it in the newspaper, when the Kings actually make it in. In non-traditional hockey markets, there’s no luxury of memory. Fans don’t have fantastic teams to remember. They only have what’s in front of them. If the NHL is serious about wanting to remain relevant in these markets, it has to sit on the owners to put solid teams on the ice. You can’t have a major market NHL team that’s already set for golf. And if you allow that in your league, you can’t act surprised when fans never fully embrace the game.

Isles Won’t Consider Hard-Core Queens. Yet.

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 13 Feb 2009 11:11:11 +0000

Apparently the Islanders won’t be moving to Queens just yet.

The team released a statement saying they’re not moving into the now-industrial area near Citi Field, formerly known as Shea Stadium.

I’m from Queens and I know that area near Shea. It’s a maze of chop shops (or at least car repair places housed in free-standing structures; if you lose a hub cap or need a used part, you go to this area to get it), but the city is kicking everyone out so it can be built up into something nicer. It’s a good area in that it’s train-accessible, and it’s a sporting part of Queens: the U.S. Open is held right around there, too. So conceptually, I don’t think the move is crazy. And Ranger tickets have been hard to get the past few seasons, so maybe people would settle for Islander tickets. But I can’t imagine the Rangers would welcome a team into the city limits.

This will be interesting to watch as my two favorite things converge: hockey and Queens.

I don’t want to talk too much about real estate, though. This isn’t the LA Times. The Times game story about the Kings win over the Flames is mostly about Mike Cammalleri’s LA home. My apologies if this is a Tribune cost-savng initiative to combine sports reporting and real estate reporting.

Also SI.com has started sketching out ideas for Olympic rosters. Team Canada is going to be huge, with Allan Muir suggesting a third-line pair of Mike Green and Jay Bouwmeester. That’s a lot of talent for your third d-set. It’s also like basically using two forwards. As an American, I’m OK with that, though.

Michael Farber’s U.S. team preview features Scott Gomez and Chris Drury down the middle, which makes me wonder if Farber has seen the Rangers play this season. Or if maybe he just doesn’t love America.

KC the New Hockeytown?

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 16 Jan 2009 11:17:57 +0000

I kind of a have a feeling Kansas City is about to become a hot NHL city.

Hot on the heels of the announcement the Islanders are going to play the Kings in an exhibition game in KC comes Wayne Gretzky’s confirmation the Coyotes are looking for new investors to help keep the team in Arizona.

I wonder if Kansas City can support two NHL teams.

Even though I’m from Queens, which is right next to Long Island, I really don’t understand the subtleties of the issues with the proposed new arena for the Islanders. Apparently traffic is a big issue, though.

The exhibition game in Kansas City is pretty universally seen as the Islanders announcing that they are going to play in a new arena, either on Long Island or in Missouri.

Speaking of the Islanders, Greg Logan says the signing of Wade Dubielewicz is a strong indicator goalie Rick DiPietro could be done for the season. Wherever the Isles end up playing, I hope the arena is built better than DiPietro’s knees.

Also, the Terry Murray watch might have begun in LA after last night’s brutal loss to the Red Wings. Helene Elliott called it “soulless and goalless.”

The Kings struggles to score aren’t entirely a coaching issue. They’ve had some injuries and they’re a very young team. But when a team seems to lose the will to compete and players aren’t standing up for each other, switching the coach often winds up being the quickest fix.

I think Helene Elliott should get the nod if Murray is fired. She knows hockey and she certainly has a way with words.