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Tanking Will Not Help the Florida Panthers

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 30 Mar 2010 13:17:46 +0000

Photo from fOTOGLIF

Yesterday, George Richards, who cover the Panthers for the Miami Herald asked the question quite a few teams seem to be asking themselves this time of year: Should Florida tank to move up in the draft?

It’s a valid question. If you’re not going to the playoffs, why not put yourself in better draft position? The Penguins allegedly tanked to grab Mario Lemieux (#1 in 1984) and that worked out for them.

But let’s not forget the Senators allegedly tanked to grab Alexandre Daigle (#1 in 1993) and that didn’t work out quite as well.

And that’s the thing about draft picks. Or the two things really. Number one, their performance isn’t guaranteed and number two, even a great pick won’t necessarily save a franchise.

Look at Steve Stamkos (#1 in 2008) in Tampa. He’s having an amazing second season, playing fantastic hockey, and it just isn’t enough to help the Lightning.

And as great a player as Rick Nash (#1 in 2002) is, he’s never been enough to turn things around in Columbus. Not alone, anyway.

Obviously, smart successful draft picks help franchises, but if there’s no infrastructure within an organization to support the pick, it really doesn’t do much good. One great player can’t turn around a franchise.

Sidney Crosby (#1 in 2005) had a huge impact in Pittsburgh because of his enormous talent and because of his strong supporting cast. I don’t think he could have won a Stanley Cup with a team like Atlanta. Or Florida, for that reason.

In general, people like the idea of draft picks because the picks are mysterious. You don’t know how well a high pick will do, but you dream they’ll be incredible. In the absence of evidence, your mind assumes greatness.

And sometimes the picks are great, but without a support system within a team, even great picks aren’t going to be able to turn around the failures of a dysfunctional franchise.

The Panthers have not only created a culture of losing, they seem to somehow actively encourage it. There’s no NHL stat tracking apathetic play, but you’d have to put Florida in the mix for the top ranking, if the statistic existed.

I’m sure some people within the Panthers organization might relish the idea of tanking, as it officially makes losing a good thing, rather than a bad thing. There’s certainly scientific interest in seeing just how numb an NHL franchise can become, but barring that exciting knowledge, I’m not sure tanking for a pick will really help the Panthers fortunes in future seasons.

Overconfidence Could be San Jose’s Achilles’ Heel

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 19 Jan 2010 11:02:46 +0000

Mrs. PuckUpdate and I love to joke about announcers who warn against the dreaded two-goal lead, what a lot of them call ‘the most dangerous lead to have.’

A lot of times, a team will go up two goals and the announcer will talk about how it’s actually a risky lead to have, since a team will protect a one-goal lead, but could get cocky with a two-goal one.

It seems pretty nonsensical; the type of thing a color guy probably brings up to keep the game interesting.

Having said that, San Jose’s 9-1 blowout of the Flames might not be the best thing for the Sharks.

The Sharks, as we all know, don’t have the best playoff record. To succeed in the playoffs, a team needs to know how to play under duress. With just 10 regulation losses so far this year, they haven’t been in that situation very often.

If the Sharks continue to relatively effortlessly roll through games in the playoffs, as they have during this regular season, it’s not an issue. Scoring nine goals in a playoff game should be enough to get them a win.

But if they’re getting played tighter and thinking a nine-goal explosion is just a shift away, that might cause some playoff problems.

So yeah. An eight-goal victory margin is cool and it’s great that the Sharks got their secondary scoring going, but if I’m coach Todd McLellan, I want my team humble yet confident. Huge wins like this make me think the Sharks are just getting set-up for another big flop out of the playoffs.

San Jose could use a nice bit of adversity to toughen them up for the playoffs. I don’t think they’ve had to fight through any yet this season.

Speaking of the playoffs, it’s been a while for the Panthers. Their last playoff appearance was 2000.

If Florida does finally make it in this year, that’ll be a good example of a team that won’t be overconfident in their approach to the post-season.

Big Goalie Night

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 10 Dec 2009 10:54:04 +0000

Last night was kind of interesting. There were 10 games played, with four shutouts.

Goalies Steve Mason (CBJ), Ryan Miller (BUF), Ty Conklin (backup; STL), and Nik Backstrom (MIN) each kept the red light off behind them.

So is this a sign defense is back in the NHL? Is the NHL reverting to its pre-lockout lockdown defensive mode?

Flipping around, it seems more like a sign the NHL season is just too long. Teams are out of gas and seem to be having trouble bringing the proper energy levels to each game.

Although, to be fair, Miller’s night against the Caps included some pretty amazing saves. But Minnesota-Colorado was pretty devoid of energy as was the Blues win over a tired-looking Detroit. Columbus played a strong defensive game against Florida, but the Panthers have looked tired since American Thanksgiving.

I don’t have data on the last time the NHL had this many shutouts in a night, but it seems to be a pretty rare thing. You can look at it as some strong goalies having solid games, but the reality is probably more that some strong and some struggling teams had a night where they didn’t have very much steam.

The NHL is cramming in games to make room for the Olympics and we’re starting to see the effect in the on-ice product. It’s good for goalies but probably dull for fans. Does anyone want to watch a bunch of exhausted men skate around?

Speaking of on-ice product, why is Ottawa both mad and surprised Alex Kovalev’s been slumping this season? How did they not realize this is what Kovalev does?

RealEstateBuzz

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 26 Jun 2009 10:11:53 +0000

I’m thinking I need to get into real estate, since that seems to be the best way to track player movement.

Some people say Jay Bouwmeester’s building a house in Edmonton is a clue he wants to play out west.

Marian Gaborik’s buying a house in Vancouver seems to be a clue he’ll sign there as a free agent.

And now, upcoming free agent Sergei Zubov has placed his Dallas home on the market, a sign he might not be returning to the Stars (It has a dipping pool, which sounds dirty to me). But since Zubov has a Florida home, would the Panthers want Zubov as a much, much, much older Bouwmeester replacement? The man can still run a powerplay and work a point. We saw that in the playoffs.

I’m off to show a lovely junior four in a great school district. The maintenance is shockingly low, too. Hit me on Twitter if you want in on this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

Penguins Evolve Against Wings

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 03 Jun 2009 10:05:42 +0000

So what did Pittsburgh do right in their win over Detroit?

Quite a few things.

Their powerplay was finally effective against the Wings.

They managed to get pucks deep in the Red Wing zone.

They kept the Zetterberg/Lindstrom match-up out on the ice for longer shifts, plus lots of ice time in general.

I think getting the Crosby match-up forced the Wings to cheat in their own end a bit. No one played very deep, since they were often waiting for Crosby to come over the boards. As a result, Detroit was frequently caught playing up ice, which let the Penguins chip the puck behind them.

Game four should be great. So far, both coaches have done a huge job of adjusting.

Also, Tim Panaccio reports the Flyers were in talks with Florida GM Jacques Martin for the rights to defenseman Jay Bouwmeester. With Martin gone, that deal isn’t a sure thing. Bouwmeester’s rights could also wind-up in Edmonton. Bouwmeester is an Edmonton native, otherwise, I’d just assume he would never sign there.

Finally, Mike Heika has a nice piece on Les Jackson, the forgotten second-half of Dallas’ one-time two-headed GM monster. Jackson did all of the work while Brett Hull got all of the attention and brought Sean Avery to Dallas. Now, Jackson is expected to help new GM Joe Nieuwendyk transition into the job.

Sutter: ‘Upon Further Review, Sundin is Pretty Decisive’

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 02 Jun 2009 10:16:01 +0000

Brent Sutter is starting to look like another successful graduate of the Mats Sundin Rapid Decision-Making Program. He’s still not sure he wants to coach the Devils next season.

The longer Sutter waits, the less effective he’ll be as a coach if he decides to return. Would you play hard for someone who was that unsure he even wanted to coach you?

I’m guessing the indecision might also be related to a job-opening in Calgary.

Devils GM Lou Lamoriello said he won’t rush Sutter, so I’m curious just when everyone will know next season’s coach of the Devils. At this rate, it could be November before anyone knows for sure.

Speaking of coaches, how about Jacques Martin leaving the GM job in Florida to coach the Habs? George Richards likes the move because it gets Martin out of any fallout from not trading Jay Bouwmeester at this year’s trade deadline. That’s pretty slick since I didn’t see a way for the Panthers to save face if/when Bouwmeester left.

Finally, game three of the finals is tonight. People are making a big deal out of Pittsburgh getting the last change, but Detroit often takes defensive draws with two centers, sending the extra one off after the faceoff is won. The Wings know how to get players on and off the ice. Detroit will be able to get the Zetterberg line on against Sidney Crosby. So Pittsburgh needs a plan B if they want to win tonight. I’ve got nothing. Hopefully, for Pittsburgh, Dan Bylsma does.

Potvin Fired!

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 07 May 2009 09:57:18 +0000

Last night we saw two game threes go into overtime, with each game ending 3-2.

In Raleigh, the Bruins looked completely out of steam, yet still made it to OT before losing.

In Pittsburgh, the Caps seemed to spend the whole game on the penalty kill. And while the penalty kill was strong, it prevented Washington from finding a rhythm. Also not helping things was Evgeni Malkin’s realization that the second round had already started.

Also, the bankruptcy of the Phoenix Coyotes continues to leave more questions than answers. Like just how much money are they giving coach/owner Wayne Gretzky? And will he ever see any of it?

Down in Florida, Denis Potvin, arguably most famous for being the subject of a derisive Ranger fan chant, is leaving his job as the Florida Panthers TV analyst. According to Potvin, it was a money thing. According to the Panthers, they needed their broadcasters to be in Florida all year for marketing and fan outreach purposes.

George Richards says he heard rumors of this move back in January, but the current Coyotes situation has to be scaring teams like the Panthers into doing everything within their power to get fans in the seats.

Renney A Healthy Scratch…Forever

Steven Ovadia — Tue, 24 Feb 2009 11:18:05 +0000

Now that the Rangers have fired coach Tom Renney, Ranger fans have once less thing to chant at the Garden.

The only real surprise in the move was that Rangers GM/President Glen Sather waited so long to make the switch. The team has looked lost for a few weeks and while there are severe problems with the construction of the team, Renney had made that work in the past. In fact, just to play devil’s advocate, one of the theories on Renney is that ultimately he fired himself by getting awful teams to overperform over the past two or three seasons. The current Ranger slide wasn’t so much a slide as a return to the mean, performance-wise. Renney couldn’t match the unrealistic expectation his previous successes created.

Goalie Henrik Lundqvist had an interesting response to Renney’s firing: “Its tough right now. Sometimes you have to accept that you need a change and you have to do it…I have a lot of great memories here with Tom my first 3 1/2 years. He’s a great man, Tom, and I wish him the best.”

Lundqvist’s beef with Renney, if there is a beef, might have been a lack of goal support. Lundqvist pretty much had to play perfectly every night since he couldn’t count on more than one or two goals a game. But I’m not sure he’ll like playing for John Tortorella, a much less conservative coach who isn’t going to constantly have three men back on the forecheck.

In fact, Larry Brooks calls Tortorella the anti-Tom, which is pretty perfect. Where Renney was calm, conservative, and equitable to a fault, Tortorella is passionate, willing to take risks, and believes ice time is a privilege, not a right.

Interesting, given yesterday’s post on personality, Brooks also says one of the problems with the Rangers is that they had become too bland, with no dominant personality in the locker room.

Meanwhile, as Sather tries to save the Rangers season, one has to wonder if he’s going to get his new coach a present in the form of Jay Bouwmeester, Tortorella’s former Florida enemy. George Richards says he suspects Bouwmeester is available, as long as Florida doesn’t have to take on more money. Would the Panthers want Petr Prucha and his relatively small contract? Would the Panthers not want to donate Bouwmeester to a team now coached by Tortorella?

NHL Fights the Fighting

Steven Ovadia — Mon, 24 Nov 2008 09:48:11 +0000

Lately, there’s been a lot of talk about how to protect NHL players. Two weeks ago, Don Cherry was going on about it for like eight minutes. I wish I could follow what he says. I think he might have said something about no-touch icing potentially saving lives, but I’m not quite sure. To be honest, the suit just hypnotizes me.

It’s came again this weekend with Devils defenseman Mike Mottau getting a two-game suspension for elbowing Islander Frans Nielsen Friday night. Rich Chere, who covers the Devils, says the punishment fits the crime. Greg Logan, who covers the Islanders, thinks Mottau got off ridiculously easy.

The Good Point Blog recommends dumping the instigator rule, which would help in theory. But I wonder if it would work in practice, as NHL coaches have become conditioned to outcome-based coaching. The mentality for most NHL coaches is that the only thing that counts is a win. It’s not about revenge or standing up for your players so much as it’s about earning those Ws. Logan touched on this idea when he noted that Isles coach Scott Gordon didn’t even have his enforcer out after Nielsen went down. Gordon said he didn’t see the point when the Islanders were trying to mount a comeback.

The NHL game has changed. It’s all about skill. While there will always be a place for grit in hockey, less and less players are familiar with the concept of teammates whose only job is to knock the snot out of opponents who have stepped out of line. With the salary cap, most teams can’t afford to keep a boxer on skates. Most teams have enforcers, but these guys are way more talented than the enforcers of years past. Modern enforcers have to be able to skate and shoot to at least some extent. Because it’s all about the wins. The blood is an after-thought.

If you don’t think the culture of the NHL has changed, just ask Wade Belak, who was just put on waivers for Florida. He tried to avenge teammate Nick Boynton and couldn’t find anyone to fight: “I tried to fight guys there and they refused to go…What do they want me to do, fight and take a penalty? We were trying to win that game. I’m not a rookie.”

So I don’t know what you do to keep players safe. I’m going to recommend bubble wrap.

Nothing But Staal

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 12 Nov 2008 11:04:14 +0000

I’d love to know the Versus ratings on last night’s Red Wings/Penguins game. It seemed liked everyone was watching it. The Wings blew a three-goal lead and were pretty much single-handedly beaten by Pittsburgh’s Jordan Staal.

Staal has a lot of offensive talent for a natural shut-down center and he struggles with balancing the offense and the defense. In the past, I’ve been in favor of Staal indulging his defensive side, but watching him explode like that in an emotionally huge game for the Penguins, I wonder if coach Michel Therrien doesn’t have the right idea in using Staal as a top six forward.

Some more Western Conference news: Joe Sakic seems to have a slight disc inflammation and Peter Forsberg had another round of foot surgery. I understand Forsbeg’s wanting to extend a brilliant career that feels a bit too short, but at a certain point, he just has to realize his mind wants what his body can’t give him. Unless he’s in severe pain, in which case I understand his wanting to get that fixed.

Also, two interesting articles:

New Times Broward-Palm Beach had a great look at Jay Bouwmeester’s career in Florida so far. Thomas Francis argues Bouwmeester hasn’t lived up to expectations, which might be true to a certain extent, but I really don’t think there’s an NHL GM that doesn’t consider Bouwmeester a fantastic, NHL-quality defenseman. And once he gets out of Florida, he’ll get the chance to show what he can do.
A hockey team in Brooklyn? What could be better? Actually, a hockey team in Queens would be better, but minor league hockey in New York City is still a very cool thing.