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How Ilya Kovalchuk Should Have Handled Free Agency

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 15 Jul 2010 10:58:57 +0000

As a public service to both Ilya Kovalchuk and hockey fans, I’m going to list some things Kovalchuk could have done to prevent his extended stay in NHL Free Agent Purgatory.

Free Samples
At the end of the 2007-08 season, Marian Hossa left Pittsburgh to sign a one-year deal with Detroit. Hossa could have gotten a longer deal somewhere else, but by taking the one-year internship in Detroit, Hossa did a few things:

He showed his commitment to winning, by taking less money for the chance to win a Cup.
He showed GMs what he brings to a team by helping Detroit once again reach the Stanley Cup finals (although, to be candid, Detroit did lose the Cup that year).
He improved his game, learning things from many of the Detroit players. Hossa didn’t have a down-low game before he spent a year with the Wings. He’s a much more complete player because of that one season.

That season in Detroit improved Hossa’s value on the free agent market. NHL GMs would be much more comfortable with Kovalchuk if he gave GMs a “free” season somewhere to show everyone just what he brings to the table.

A great season somewhere would remove any doubts GMs have about throwing a lot of money at Kovalchuk. Sure, he’d lose a year of salary, but a strong season would result in a contract that would more than make up for what he left gave up for that one season.

Decide Which is More Important: Winning or Money
If the numbers being thrown around are true, Kovalchuk has already turned down several opportunities to be a very well-compensated player. That tells us Kovalchuk is interested in money.

But before Kovalchuk was traded to New Jersey last season, he turned down a 12-year, $101 million deal from the Thrashers, which is more than anyone else has offered so far. At the time, the thought was that Kovalchuk turned down the Atlanta deal because he wanted to win.

If he wants money, he should have taken the Atlanta deal. If he wants to win, he should decide if he things New Jersey or LA is the better team and then sign with one of them. But he can’t keep floating between the idea of getting a cap-busting contract and the idea of winning, because the two thoughts are pretty much mutually exclusive in the real world.

Read the Market
Kovalchuk came into free agency following a Stanley Cup finals featuring two teams with depth and versatility. Neither team had a top guy per se. Instead, both teams featured a few talented players. So much so, that Jonathan Toews winning the Conn Smythe seemed more like a coin-flip-driven decision than an intellectual one.

In last season’s Cup finals, everyone was an MVP and no one was an MVP.

I’m sure at least a few GMs saw the Finals and thought that they wanted a team like Chicago or Philadelphia. Putting all of a team’s eggs into the Kovalchuk basket would be the antithesis of the Chicago/Philadelphia strategy. Sure, the Blackhawks gave a massive contract to Hossa last year, but it wasn’t until they had a lot of fantastic pieces already in place. And while Hossa was fantastic in the playoffs, ultimately Chicago is paying a sick amount of money to a second-line guy. So it’s fair to say, Hossa serves as a little bit of a warning against the massive free agent contract.

NHL GMs saw were reminded that depth is more important than anything. I’m not sure there are any teams that are deep enough for Kovalchuk to represent the final piece of the puzzle, but who also have the cap space to give Kovalchuk the contract he wants.

To get the huge contract, he might have signed someplace else short-term and waited for a more star-driven Cup finals to convince GMs they need the best player available, not a variety of very good players.

I assume the Kovalchuk Purgatory will eventually end, allowing the NHL to get on with the rest of free agency. It’s too late to help Kovalchuk, but hopefully future free agents will see these tips and take them to heart.

Because it’s emotionally draining spending each day waiting for Kovalchuk to sign somewhere.

I’m not sure I can do another summer like this.

Goalie Brian Elliott is Hot at the Right Time for Ottawa

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 24 Mar 2010 09:58:53 +0000

Ottawa’s Brian Elliott had his second shutout in a row last night, with a considerable assist given to Anton Volchenkov’s shot-blocking.

It’s still a little early, but this is the time of year when you look for a goalie to get hot. Because a lot of times a hot goalie becomes a huge factor in the playoffs.

Is Elliott that kind of hot goalie?

He last surrendered a goal toward the middle of the third period against Atlanta March 18. Since that goal, he’s gone scoreless in 14 minutes of relief for Pascal Leclaire and tended the two consecutive shutouts.

Assuming the Eastern standings don’t shift too much, hardly a given, the Senators would draw the Flyers in the first round, which now seems like almost a bye for Ottawa.

Of course, the Flyers could still very easily fall out of the playoff race. I think they might be able to solidify their position, though. They’ve lost Jeff Carter but have slid Claude Giroux into Carter’s spot on the second line.

Giroux hasn’t performed well this season but hasn’t played with great wings. He should do better finishing the season between Dany Briere and Scott Hartnell, although obviously the promotion didn’t pay immediate dividends last night.

Meanwhile, Ottawa, a bit of a joke at the start of the season, what with its star player demanding a trade, suddenly seems very much like a team to watch in the post-season.

Also worth noting: The Thrashers had the chance to move into the playoffs last night and blew it with an awful game against the Bruins. Thrashers Coach John Anderson blamed nerves, which was the first time I can remember an NHL coach properly attributing nerves to a loss. It was nice to see the horrible loss filed where it belonged.

Atlanta Roller Coaster and Chicago’s Dilemma

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 03 Mar 2010 10:54:29 +0000

So the past few weeks have been a bit of an emotional roller coaster for Thrashers fans.

Before the Olympics, the team traded away Ilya Kovalchuk. That was a little sad.

Then, GM Don Waddell said the team would be buyers at the trade deadline, rather than sellers. And that had to make the fans happy.

But then, the Thrashers signed Chris Chelios, age 48. And that had to be a huge disappointment.

Chelios is basically injury insurance, but I can’t believe there wasn’t a player of similar quality available for a similar salary, but at half the age. Or even less than half the age.

It’s just a very odd signing. Like instead of making a big move to substantially improve the team, Waddell decided to make a big move everyone would talk about.

Of course, he succeeded. But he would have been just as successful if had signed someone from the Braves to an NHL contract.

Speaking of GMs, it’ll be interesting to see what Blackhawks GM Stan Bowman does at the trade deadline.

Last night’s loss to the Islanders seemed to be Olympic fatigue meeting shaky goaltending.

Will the Blackhawks try and upgrade their goaltending? Will they stand pat (they traded for defenseman Nick Boynton but sent him straight to the NHL) and hope that everyone gets rested?

One theory is the Blackhawks will use their defensive depth to make some big deadline deals. But without a significant goaltending upgrade, and I’m not sure there’s anyone available who’s much better than goalie Cristobal Huet, any defensive sacrifices are going to pretty much lead straight to goals.

Christensen Shows Rangers the Power of Desperation

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 01 Jan 2010 13:51:08 +0000

Over the break I read BALL FOUR, Jim Bouton’s famous tale of his 1969 season pitching for the Seattle Pilots and the Houston Astros.

The book is famous because it was the first one to destroy the mystique of the professional athlete. We learned guys like to drink and curse and look at women.

The book is also interesting because it takes place before baseball players won a lot of their contractual victories, so a good portion of the players in the book are constantly playing for their next contract every year. It provides a tremendous incentive for them to perform well each year, too.

I say that because last night in Raleigh, New York Rangers coach John Tortorella took Erik Christensen, picked off of waivers from Anaheim, played sparingly in New York, and without a point on the season, and put him on the Rangers top line between Marian Gaborik and Brandon Dubinsky.

Christensen played 20 minutes, pretty much what he had played the previous two games combined, and finished with a goal and an assist.

Between periods, he told MSG his agent had told him guys like him are always playing for their next contract, so he knew he had to take advantage of this opportunity.

Now we don’t know how Christensen will finish the season. And for some reason, I doubt he’s the second coming of Joe Sakic. But it did make me think about the value of short-term contracts and how they keep players sharp and desperate. The Rangers recent struggles can pretty much be tied to a distinct lack of players who are neither sharp nor desperate.

There’s value to longer-term contracts, and if you look at the NHL point leaders you’ll definitely notice quite a few of those players are locked down for a while, but Christensen is showing a one-year contract can be a powerful motivator. Especially for a player who might be out of options if his current NHL team doesn’t re-sign him.

More NHL teams should leverage this desperation to get a better performance out of marginal players. When teams are out of options, why not throw a career fourth-liner onto the top line for a few games and see what happens? Even if it just works for a few games at a time, it’s cheaper than keeping an average player for five or six seasons. Plus, marginal players are much easier to send down when their value has expired. And, they’re easy to trade for another marginal player.

Also, how is Buffalo also playing Atlanta today? The NHL couldn’t schedule them off so the Winter Classic would have the day to itself? Or, as long as the Thrashers are in Buffalo, couldn’t they have also played that one outside? They could probably get a great sheet of ice going in about 40 minutes.

NHL Is a Two Financial Tier League

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 12 Nov 2009 10:53:42 +0000

Forbes released their annual NHL franchise valuations and things actually look pretty good for the league. Or at least for some of the franchises. The average operating profit was $6.1 million, aggregate income increased, as did average franchise value.

Unfortunately, this wasn’t an across the board thing for the all of the franchises. While successful teams like Pittsburgh, Washington, and Chicago are doing great (as one might expect), other franchises like Nashville, Atlanta, the Islanders, and, of course, the Coyotes, are struggling. Here is the Forbes valuation chart.

One thing the article doesn’t mention that I’m curious about: the Stars and Avs, two seemingly successful franchises, lost $10 million and $11 million in value, respectively. I’m not sure if that’s a business loss of some kind that has nothing to do with the actual franchises, or if something else is going on.

Looking at the list of struggling franchises (and I’m assuming Dallas and Colorado aren’t actually struggling, that they just lost some value this year), you can’t help but wonder when the NHL is going to contract. You have wildly successful teams rubbing elbows with teams that can’t fill their arenas and can’t attract a buyer. Why not cut the fat and streamline league profits?

Speaking of value, the Blackhawks are about to see some return on their investment in Marian Hossa: he’s expected to begin contact drills this week, putting him one step closer to making his season debut. Like everyone else, I’m very curious how/if he’ll fit in with the rest of the team.

Also, here is my look at Jean-Sebastien Giguere’s demand to be made the starting goalie in Anaheim.

Caps Miss Ovechkin

Steven Ovadia — Thu, 05 Nov 2009 10:57:43 +0000

The Devils seem to agree with the conventional wisdom that the Caps aren’t the same team without Alex Ovechkin.

New Jersey beat the Capitals 3-2 at home, where the Devils have been pretty awful.

The Devils had a lot of comments relating to how the Capitals seem bummed about playing without their star.

About the only downside to Ovechkin’s durability (he missed just four games in the previous four seasons) is that the team never had to learn to play without him. The crazy thing is, even though he’s week-to-week, he apparently was still in the mix to play last night. So Ovechkin might not even miss more than handful of games.

And the Caps will never have to learn to play without Ovechkin.

The Devils, meanwhile, don’t know what it’s like to play with durability or a consistent line-up. Rob Niedermayer left the Caps game in the third with some kind of upper-body injury. If I’m not mistaken, the New Jersey Devils now consist of goalie Martin Brodeur and a bunch of fans wearing red. Everyone else is hurt.

Speaking of injuries, Colby Armstrong of the Thrashers is a fan of gluing cuts, as opposed to sewing them shut with a needle. Both options sound horrible to me. I don’t think I’d last very long in the NHL.

Sharks Need Defense; Avs Need Goalie Luck

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 07 Oct 2009 10:02:20 +0000

As I mentioned yesterday, it’s still early in the season, so it’s still hard to make observations about team problems and team successes. But having said that, some interesting ideas are already starting to emerge.

Like will the Sharks play defense this season? They went down four goals to the Kings, managed to come back, but then couldn’t keep the momentum and still wound up losing. Goalie Evgeni Nabokov wasn’t great but he certainly wasn’t horrible. And you can kind of see that in Joe Thornton, Dany Heatley and Devin Setoguchi’s going a combined -7 on an eight-point night. Sharks coach Todd McLellan might have to think about dismantling that line to get some defense inserted into it — maybe someone like Manny Malhotra. Or maybe the issue can be resolved with coaching. But right now, something seems off in San Jose.

Things were rolling well for the Avs. But yesterday Adrian Dater reported goalie Craig Anderson has a minor groin strain. It’s not expected to keep Anderson out of practice today, but as Dater points out, groin injuries can be catastrophic for goalies. And the Avs need Anderson and his .973 save percentage and 1.00 goals against.

Finally, Kevin Allen has some interesting Atlanta Thrasher predictions, including that the team will stay in Atlanta and 70-30 odds the team will re-sign Ilya Kovalchuk, which are pretty great odds. I was thinking it was more like 30-70.

Thrashers Announce Upcoming Enigma Night Promotion

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 30 Sep 2009 09:54:34 +0000

The Thrashers signed Maxim Afinogenov to a one-year, $800,000 deal. It’s certainly a cheap price for a forward with a lot of potential upside, until you consider that Afinogenov has spent the past two seasons being more about his potential than about the realization of his potential.

I was a little surprised the Thrashers held onto Afinogenov but dumped Dan Fritsche, who’s got some size and provides more defense. The Thrashers seem to have used the off-season to get very offensive; I’m very curious to see what the team looks like once the season starts. Obviously, there’s the potential for Atlanta to be a really exciting team to watch, with lots of European players setting each other up in creative ways. But there’s also the potential for lots of guys overhandling the puck and constantly giving it up every time they drag it across their own blueline.

Whatever happens, you have to admire Atlanta’s new commitment to finding scoring, though. They really aren’t messing around.

Thrashers Trying to Keep Kovalchuk in NHL?

Steven Ovadia — Wed, 23 Sep 2009 10:01:10 +0000

Defenseman Mark Popovic is in Thrasher training camp, trying to earn a contract. He spent last season playing in the KHL and he wasn’t very impressed by the quality of play there.

Popovic played for Atlanta before deciding to go to Russia, so he has a connection to the team, but part of me wonders if someone in the Thrashers organization wanted a KHL player around to constantly remind Ilya Kovalchuk that the KHL game isn’t comparable to the NHL one. I wonder if the thinking is that the Thrashers don’t want to compete against the NHL and KHL in terms of re-signing Kovalchuk next season.

Not to disparage Popovic’s game, of course…

Over in Philadelphia, Simon Gagne seems to have gotten through his first game of the season without injury. It’s going to be a long season for Gagne if he’s day-to-day over 82 games. Hopefully, for the Flyers and for Gagne, his hip/groin issue won’t become an issue this season. Gagne tweaked groin during Team Canada camp this summer, and you hate to see a talented player like Gagne miss regular-season games because of a pre-season game injury.

PuckUpdate: ‘Sorry, Blues!’

Steven Ovadia — Fri, 13 Mar 2009 10:19:02 +0000

First of all, I would like to formally apologize to the St. Louis Blues. Back in February, I teased Jeff Gordon for suggesting the Blues were heading toward a playoff position. This morning, the Blues are just two games out of a spot, helped by last night’s huge win over San Jose. Imagine if the Blues had been a little bit healthier this season.

Don’t try and imagine the Islanders a little healthier. It’s like trying to imagine the sound of one-hand clapping. The Isles have gotten to the point where even their backup callups are getting hurt. Kurtis McLean is the latest victim; he hurt his leg playing soccer before last night’s win over Montreal. It’s gotten to the point where the Islanders jersey should come with a warning label. You put that on, and odds are, you will get hurt.

Finally, The Atlanta Journal-Constitution recently caught up with Bruce Levenson, the co-owner of the Thrashers. He provides some interesting nuggets about how things work in Atlanta. For instance:

The other big mistake is maybe trying to go too fast in building a winner here. I think we made the same mistake every new owner makes in that regard.

Winner? Too fast? The Thrashers have played just four playoff games and have never won one. If this is fast winning, I shudder to think what a slow, deliberate team building would look like. I suppose it would involve impregnating women believed to have hockey-favorable genetic make-up. And even that project would take less than 20 years. The “quick” build has been in progress for almost 10 years.